Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question

[mosquito]

We still don't know how much preflop raising there is.

Cheap limps should mostly be profitable long run, and
of course you can still raise with some hands.

If the table is tight/aggressive your actual hand selection
may not change much from normal.

And of course, you do not want to play QJ. LOL.

[disjunction]

I'm fine with my opponents believing that I have QJd with 100% certainty, so long as they don't claim to have arrived at this conclusion through logic.

[snowgurts]

Another question is to what extent do they know about the QJ diamonds? Obviously, they "KNOW" you have it, but do they know you know? If so, are there bluffs involved? Might you actually be at a disadvantage because you don't know where you're standing on any given hand? They could be betting into you with K2, or AA.

All of the flops mentioned so far have been ideal for either a suprise, slow-playing hand, or a easy bluff hand. What if there's a flop of AJ2 rainbow, you hold KK, and they're betting into you? What are the possibilities? (1) JK (2) JA (3) J2 (4) A2 (5) AA (6) JJ (7) 22 (8) KK (9) QQ (10) Ax (11) A bluff on the Ace (12) A bluff on two pair (or later on, a made straight)

Of course, the point is moot. In that situation, you scratch your head, fold, and screw them on the next hand.

[PinkSteel]

Potential for opponents to make mistakes skyrockets, and so correspondingly does your win rate.

There will be a not insignificant number of hands in which Qd or Jd either hits the board or shows up in an opponent hand. What do affected opponents assume at that point?

If these opponents suddenly regain all their faculties, things get sticky.

[DougOzzzz]

This is sort of like playing an Omaha hand at a Hold 'Em table, except your opponents will fold to almost all of your "bluffs" and call/raise your value bets. The EV is huge. I think 10BB/hr is drastically underestimating the win rate.

Using very rough approximations, I am getting a win rate of nearly 1BB/hand. I think a more detailed mathematical analysis could come very close to the exact answer.

[catlover]

David your question is not quite clear:

(1) What if an opponent can see the queen or jack of diamonds in their own hand or on the board?

(2) Do I also assume I have QJ of diamonds?

(3) Do I know they are assuming I have QJ of diamonds?

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
David your question is not quite clear:

(1) What if an opponent can see the queen or jack of diamonds in their own hand or on the board?

(2) Do I also assume I have QJ of diamonds?

(3) Do I know they are assuming I have QJ of diamonds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not 100% sure what he meant but most likely:

1) Qd and Jd have to be dead... either that, or your opponents are brainwashed so much that even if they see it on the board, or have it in their hand, they will think that the deck simply has 2 of those cards in it. Or I suppose the 3rd option is that they will realize they were stupid to think you had Qd Jd and play normally. I don't think the 3rd case is what he meant though.

2. No.

3. Yes.

[Nalapoint1]

This scenario will NEVER happen.Why waste time discussing it?Why not discuss theoretical situations that are likely to happen?

When I woorked for a California start up company 27 years ago, before the weekly sales meetings, all of the sales reps would talk about ways to spend a miilion dollars.You have to remember that if you made $50k/year you were in the 50% tax bracket back then.

The owner of the company came in and said if you guys spent as much time trying to figure out how to MAKE a million dollars as you do trying to spend it you might get the chance to actually spend it.Life is too short to waste time on what if's, spend it on what is.

[Shandrax]

The correct answer is: Nobody knows!

I'd go with chaos theory here. Some opponents might try to play correctly and essentially only play when they figure to be a favorite against QJ, some might to try to bluff you because they have not bluffed for a while and hope a king or an ace shows on the flop, some might catch a bluff card and be forced to bluff with a trash hand, some might have read the wrong (or the right? - philosophical question) book...

Maybe the guys on your table are complete idiots willing to give their money away (good table selection btw.), or maybe Gus Hansen is on your table and decided to raise it utg with 8-2o....who knows [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[thejameser]

this gives you a huge advantage in terms of the FTP; that is you will be able to induce your opponents to play in ways that they would not if they actually "saw" your hole cards and thus you will gain. i am no statistical wizard, and more importantly don't have the software to run the probabilties but i would imagine a winrate increase would be dependent upon your skill(which you say is excellent)and as long as your hole cards are not QJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you are likely playing most hands; i would guesstimate a winrate of about, well if your VPIP was 17-20 i would guess it would be 80-85 now. around 40 hands an hour would increase from 20.00 to maybe 160.00 an hour. i figure 8x(seeing about 4x as many flops, but PROFIT should be higher for excellent player due to this new advantage).