$30/60: Risk two bets more to win another?

[daryn]

i think it's crazy not to raise the river.

[daryn]

you say he is passive/straightforward.. the only hand i can see him having here is 68o or a set. no chance he has anything else

[JimmyV]

Raise it up.

[grass]

one more raise.

[LarsVegas]

I just called. And I am still not sure that wasn't the right choice.

My thoughts:

He is either going off on the turn with a set, the straight, "the big draw" or possibly two pair, probably kings-up. On the river he is way more likely to check kings up than the straight or the set. If he had a big draw (J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] fits that category perfectly, but anyway, that doesn't really matter much, because I have no value in a raise against a big draw - I will only get punished by a 3bet from the nuts or a fold if it was the big draw he was pumping on the turn and is continuing to bet).

So, a raise on my part is costing me two bets against the straight, and sometimes two, the rest of the time gaining me nothing but a fold, against the big draw.

With the implied emotional odds I am risking here by losing another three bets on the river with a hand like this, I don't really like my odds of being ahead 2 in 3, which is really what I need (I assume he will just call with at least fives and sevens - and 3bet 8-6 or J-T).

Anyhoo, he showed 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and my hand was good.

[rigoletto]

Two things:

1) a river bet like this often spells: 'I will call 1 raise, but I don't want to call a 3-bet if I c/r'.

2) against this type player you can actually fold to a 3-bet!

[catlover]

It's pretty clear that BB's play is consistent with 55, 77, and 99. There are 3 ways he can hold each of those hands, for a total of 9 ways.

Would BB make that preflop call with 68s? With 68o? If yes to both, you definitely have to call. If he would fold 68o, you barely have a raise as there are only 4 combinations of 68s, so you have 9 ways to win and 4 ways to lose.

If you're not sure, it's a flat call, because even if he only occasionally makes that preflop call with 68o, that's enough to swing your raise to a loser.

[stigmata]

I came to a similar conclusion to catlover: It is simply a question of if you think he will call preflop with 68o or not. So you probably need to raise this one more time.

[LarsVegas]

He could call with 86o sometimes, though probably not his default play. He could also 3bet 99, though not too likely.

lars

[catlover]

Well if he could make that call sometimes, the math says you are winning less than 2/3 of the time. So I think your play was right.