40k Breakeven stretch (stats/cry for help)

[balkii]

hey sthief i find your analysis interesting because I feel like all I do is check cehck check the turn. to balance that, I try to bet as much as possible with hands that I can easily fold to a cehckraise (something like QJ-high when I'm just pushing overs), easily call a C/R with (something like a strong flush draw), or easily 3-bet a CR with.

I actually feel like check the turn too much. The agg factor number does seem really high though. It may be possilbe that I am checking the turn too much with something like A-high in a blind steal spot but then not calling on the river.

maybe you're paying off with the wrong hands?

I feel like this a lot. i'm clueless though on how to change that.

[sthief09]

yeah I do tend to bet those QJ high hands because they suck. but I don't get it. your turn AF is like off the charts. maybe you're overplaying your hands? slowplaying too much? if you're checking a lot it should be low. mine is under 2

[BottlesOf]

This is a really great post, and it applies to me as I have really high flop and turn AFs (although not quite that high...)

[Grisgra]

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how many tables?

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<eyes averted, and mumbling> four

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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHA

*wipes tears from eyes*

Gee, I have no idea how you could be running at only 1BB/100 at 10/20, nosir, no idear.

[PokerBob]

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how many tables?

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<eyes averted, and mumbling> four

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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHA

*wipes tears from eyes*

Gee, I have no idea how you could be running at only 1BB/100 at 10/20, nosir, no idear.

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If I could run at 1bb/100 while 4-tabling 10/20, I'd be the happiest guy around.

[balkii]

well. I dont feel like i overplay hands very often. usually the overplaying comes on the river when I 3-bet or cap with a hand that I shouldnt.

if i have top pair or an overpair pretty much any turn raise will put me into call down mode -and I feel like I lose value like this, but I'm not sure. I dont think the AF number take checks into account. it is (raise % + bet%)/call %

so it could be that I'm not flat-calling the turn enough. I raise a lot of "donkbets." sometimes those are setups for a 3-bet but I find a lot of the time they are still just donkbets with dumb hands.

i guess i'll just pay attention to the turn a lot next time i play.

[Lost Wages]

Your numbers look solid and SpicyG was definitely someone I didn't care to have at my table. A couple of things you may want to think about:

1) Your AF looks a shade high as others have mentioned.
2) You CR% is really low. Maybe you are missing out on some value here and maybe you are making youself a little too easy to read.
3) You may be folding your SB to a steal a little too much, though that's probably a tiny leak.

Lost Wages

[wheelz]

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I really do think this is the key to beating 10/20. you get to see lots of showdowns against habitual bluffers and you can duck a lot of check-raises, which you'll be the target of because you raise so mucht hat they think you're full of it. distinguishing when to bet and when to check really is an art but having it in your reportoire (sp?) is a good first step. GET TO SHOWDOWN.

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Just want to say that I totally agree, I was really struggling at 10/20 and 15/30 until I learned this important lesson.

[ChicagoTroy]

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<eyes averted, and mumbling> four

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LOL! If it's just for combatting boredom, play one $10-20 and 2-3 SH $3-6. The $3-6 game is amazing and you can pretty much just focus on the one $10-20 table.

JMO

[Surfbullet]

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I've played with you a good amount. all those times you were kind of just there (and actually didn't write anything), so I haven't noticed anything particular. the numbers look pretty solid, but you're probably doing too much folding. I'd rather give someone a free card than let him check-raise or raise me in a situation where I'll puke and ahve to makea really borderline decision on whether to call down. effective odds on the turn aren't usually that great, so a check-raise giving you 4-1 effectively to call down puts you in a bind. by checking behind you get him to bet most hands he'd fold to a bet, only at the cost of a 6 outer. I really do think this is the key to beating 10/20. you get to see lots of showdowns against habitual bluffers and you can duck a lot of check-raises, which you'll be the target of because you raise so mucht hat they think you're full of it. distinguishing when to bet and when to check really is an art but having it in your reportoire (sp?) is a good first step. GET TO SHOWDOWN. I can't reiterate that enoguh. your turn aggression at 3.1 is opening you up to too many bet/fold situations, whcih are guaranteed to lose you pots. maybe you give free shots to 6 outers but I'd rather let someone catch 12% of a 5 BB pot than bet and get bluffed and let him take 3/4 or 1/2 (theoretically. I will expand ont hsi if you'd like. it's vague) of it from you.

it seems like your strategy is bet until you meet resistance or until youcan get a free shwodown. I think this is a great way to beat 5/10 but a good way to put yourself in uncomfortable situations that lead to you folding way too much.

I don't get why your won at sd is so low either. maybe you're paying off with the wrong hands? I don't get it. can't be 100k hands of bad luck

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I agree 100% with what everything sthief said. My disastrous first 17k hands at 10/20 were played much like yours, very aggressive, bet-fold turns, etc. the 10/20 is about getting to showdowns. GET THERE. Check through turns and snap off bluffs. Make some loose flop calls with mediocre pair hands, you'll be surprised when the LAGs give you a cheap showdown once you start calling hands w/ showdown value.

Good luck balkii, you can do it.

Surf