AKo on the button, mid/late stage with tourny fate in the balance

[A_PLUS]

Can you explain to me why it would EVER be correct to call a bet with AK post flop when you miss the flop, rather than reraising preflop? B/c it never is (given that you are sure he has a monster). We dont have 100 BBs here where we can get cute to extract a few more chips from the BB. The pot is almost 50% of our chips.

Since this is internet poker, you are not getting any specific reads post flop. So why dont you give me a range of hands for an average player when you are viewed as a LAG, and what type of flop you will fold / bet / call / reraise on. Then I can show you why you are wrong.

Dont pull that "lets play some poker" BS. Just b/c you enjoy 'playing poker' i.e. seeign flops, does not make it the right play. If you want to see flops, go play a cash game. You have 20xBB, and cant play like you have 100.

Lastly, even against an idiotically tight range of hands, we are 50/50 with almost 50% of our current stack in the middle, TAKE THE FREAKING POT!!!!!!!!

[nath]

Knowing your image, and knowing that the table has seen you play T7s to an all-in, I think there's a strong case to be made for pushing. BB's min-raise could mean lots of things-- it COULD be a trap, but he could also be trying to stand up to you for cheap (your raise, after all, looks like a routine button steal from an aggressive player). I'm probably not outguessing myself here; AA or KK are possible but not likely. I suspect small-medium pair or another high ace. In either case pushing both gives me a chance to take it down immediately and also leaves me in decent shape if I'm called.

With that in mind, just calling wouldn't be the end of the world if you wanted to leave yourself an escape; you're getting 4-to-1 odds to call, it's about 2-to-1 to spike an ace or king on the flop (if i remember correctly). If you hit one, you're getting it in, though, right?

I think my play leans between calling or folding depending on what I think of my opponent and whether or not I think my situation is better served by playing it conservatively or aggressively. Our stack is probably just short enough that I would push here.

[locutus2002]

I doubt you are taking the pot here with a push, especially in online play. Without a read on BB you can't say if you are ahead, even, or behind in the hand.

A miniraise from the BB is an unusual play. At this point in the tourney it is not unreasonable that BB might have to commit a large portion of his chips, especially as a LAG is likely to continue and play aggressively.

Of course you've been collecting info on BB's play including bluffing, betting middle pairs, unusual plays, blind defending, what he has been raising with and showing down, etc, because you're not donking it up playing 3 tournaments at once.

This information is going to help you OUTplay villain ATF.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
AA or KK are possible but not likely. I suspect small-medium pair or another high ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against this range, if he were going to bet every flop, you would be making a HUGE mistake by calling and folding all non-hit flops.

You are making a common mistake in your thought process. B/c a line is +EV, doesnt mean it is the best line.

AA-KK are the least likely hands, not b/c of the play, but b/c you have AK.

So, middle pairs- (we assume they bet out 100% of the time)
1/3 of the time we hit top pair, they bet, we call/raise, and they shut down without trips.

2/3 of the time they bet out, and we are making a mistake if we call, so we fold.

AJ+
<1/3 of the time we hit top pair. Unless we hit the Ace (which is unlikely given only 2 remain), we probably double through them. We hit the king, same as if they had a middle pair.

>2/3 of the time, we are making a mistake if we call.


So explain to me why calling with AK is good?

The reason we dont push AK when we are deep is b/c when we make such a large bet, we are only going to get called by AA or KK (maybe QQ), and the pot only represents a small % of our stack (high risk / low reward). Here, the pot is 50% of our stack, and we may get called by AQ, AJ. Remember this is ONLINE POKER!!! and we have a LAg image. Over the weekend, I was called by J8s(BB) in a 50$ MTT when I pushed JJ into two limpers with 14xBB. He typed "I thought you were bluffing". Lets not pretend a call by AJ or AQ is out of the question. In fact, I call with AQ if I am BB

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
This information is going to help you OUTplay villain ATF.

[/ QUOTE ]

Get over yourself, you see what 100, maybe 200 hands at the absolute MOST of a player in a MTT? How many times has he defended his blind? maybe once, twice? How many of them get shown down, probably none.

"you dont know if your ahead" AHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! You NEVER know if you are ahead unless you have Aces. And if you dont know now, you arent doing much better than guessing 2/3 of the flops that hit.

For you to improve upon pushing, you must have a perfect read on the BB. So are you honestly saying, that online you can tell if someone is bluffing or not when they bet 1/2 the pot into a 3 9 Q flop?

Here is where your arguement falls apart.

The player is strong enough that they wont reraise with A7-AJ, KJ+, etc., and they wont call a push with AT, but they are weak enough that your genius poker skills can tell exactly what they have from one bet or lack of a bet?

Dude, if you want to to tell magic stories and have us all marvel at your post flop skills, start a thread, I will read it daily. But stop trying to pass off your weak tight advice as good, when your only rational is your excellent post flop play.



one last thing, if you really think they will call every time, you push even faster. Please give me a range of hands where I should see a flop. I will break it down, just so you see how ridiculously accurate you would have to be if the BB used an always push strategy for this play to be higher +EV than a push.

[locutus2002]

that's just rude and personal.

[img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[A_PLUS]

I apologize, wasnt meant personally.

Do I think you give weak-tight advice? Yes

Do I think your advice has a condesending, "If you were good at poker like me" tone to it? Yes

What does this mean about you personally? Absolutely Nothing

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
that's just rude and personal.

[img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot, meet Mr. Kettle

[redrooski24]

Thanks for all the advice/discussion put into this thread. I definitely put AA/KK as his least likely holdings and that if I pushed and he called I would be at worst a slight dog and there was also a good chance I would be a 3:1 favorite. I decided to shove for some of the same reasons A said in that I didn't want to outguess myself postflop and fold what could be the best hand. Although I probably only get looked up by 66-AA and AJ-AK, I should be a slight favorite against this range(didn't do all the math) and have some decent fold equity against even maybe some of the other mid PP.

I am guessing the decision changes if we bth have 40 or 50k and both in the top 5 in chip count. In this case, would it be better to just call and see a flop? This line still seems kind of weak since you may still be folding incorrectly, but with deeper stacks there's some more wiggle room to recover.

[joeboe2001]

I for one (and Locutus makes 2?) am not sold on the push.

You are too ready to put villain on hands where he doesn't have an advantage, and apparently have no respect for his or her skills. Your AK against even a small pair is behind 5 to 4--his minimum raise sez "I want you to call or raise."

This far into a tournament, this close to the money, why get into an all or nothing situation where you will win less than one out of two times? If you call and get an A or K on the flop you are then in an excellent position to push; if you don't get the A or K and villain bets big, you can still fold and live to play another hand.