How insane is thiking about folding AQo for 2 more bets pre-flop here? - Page 2

Xhiggy · #11 07-05-2005, 12:51 AM

the button COULD be just trying to isolate you, but he'd do the same with any real hand. SB's cap is definitely legitimate if the SB is reasonable. BB has a hand that didn't mind putting in 3 more bets, so you put a range on that..

all in all, I'd call without a read. I think there are too many nice things that could flop, and I think with the position you'll be able to play well if an A flops. AK out there isn't THAT likely enough to be folding in this spot in my opinion.

oneeye13 · #12 07-05-2005, 01:44 AM

how many aces you think are in this deck?

Xhiggy · #13 07-05-2005, 02:05 AM

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how many aces you think are in this deck?

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I'm not sure exactly what you're implying, but if anything, it adds more to the case. If there is an AK out there, there's even less of a chance for an A to hit the flop. I think if a Q hits, you'll be in a good position to judge how to proceed (if at all).

andyfox · #14 07-05-2005, 02:32 AM

Another side to the argument:

1) You have "late" position, but there's a guy behind you. So really you're in the middle.

2) A complete lack of reads on all the other players will make the hand harder to play post-flop.

3) You're getting 7:1 but it's not like, say, five people limped and you can come in for one small bet where it will be likely both blinds will just call. These don't seem like passive players.

4) The guy who has position on you stands to be a pretty good player if he felt he wanted to isolate you with a fairly weak hand. And the blinds must feel pretty good about their hands to have capped and cold-called a cap out of position.

5) I see guys cap from the blinds with A-K; I guess they figure they're going to see a flop with that hand anyway, so what the hey. [Maybe, though, this happens more in loosey-goosey So. Calif. than in other venues.]

Not saying that you don't (as usual) make valid points, just that there's another side to the coin.

elindauer · #15 07-05-2005, 04:58 AM

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I presume you open raised and there were no limpers in front of you. If so, bu most likely is putting you on a steal and is trying to isolate you. You probably have the better hand. SB is likely putting bu on an isolation play so your hand may still be best, or not much worse that SB's. BB may have a big pair or a good draw and is feeling frisky. I think you must see the flop.

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It's POSSIBLE they all misclicked! Call!

Seriously, your hand has to be crushed, and things are only going to get worse after the flop. You'll be the one paying off the huge majority of the time you flop a pair, so you're really getting less than 7:1. I think this is a fold. I'd call AK, and any pair in this spot.

Good luck.
Eric

Tommy Angelo · #16 07-05-2005, 07:31 AM

"One thing I do know, Tommy Angelo would have just folded it pre-flop"

Playing at an actual table, the only hands I would have folded in your situation are Kxo and worse.

Tommy

Net Warrior · #17 07-05-2005, 07:32 AM

Yeah heck, I'm mucking AQo 1st in from co from now on. After all, they might raise behind me. I might get crushed. After all, they'll probably outplay me from the flop on too.

LarsVegas · #18 07-05-2005, 08:32 AM

"5) I see guys cap from the blinds with A-K; I guess they figure they're going to see a flop with that hand anyway, so what the hey. [Maybe, though, this happens more in loosey-goosey So. Calif. than in other venues.]"

If there are weak spots in the game, and it's likely that you could find yourself up against 44, JJ and AT, it's still reasonable to be capping AK, even though it's dog against the JJ.

lars

SLEEPER · #19 07-05-2005, 11:54 AM

So what kind of flop would you like to see? The best scenario is the button has something like A10, the SB picked up a small pair, and the BB has a hand like 9/10 suited.... Personally, I would fold here, because I have to assume, given no reads, that somebody has a big pair or AK.... the likelihood that I am beating all 3 hands is too small.....

Nigel · #20 07-05-2005, 12:18 PM

Well as you may have guessed, I did fold, which is a first for me with AQo in a situation like this. If this was a 4 handed game, I obviously would never dream of folding in this spot, so I'm not sure why I decided to give it a go here. In fact, I said to my wife, who was sitting next to me, "watch, this is going to be the dumbest fold I've ever made", lol. Anyway, of course an A flopped, and of course KK took the pot down. So it got me really thinking about this hand, and I wanted to get a discussion going on it.

It's really interesting to see the varied opinions on what appears to be a somewhat simple situation, and I think skp's analysis and andyfox's reply best sum up my conflicting feelings about the hand, and why I'm so torn as to what is the "correct" play in this situation.

Yes, we do have postitional advantage, but as andy points out, we are not last to act. The other thing going against us, and somewhat seems to negate our positional advantage, is how easy is it going to be for us to get away from this hand? If this is heavy isolation play from aggressive players, how are we going to assess where we stand post flop on an Axx or Qxx flop vs. players who may continue to push their hand hard post flop? I may face flop and turn raises from a BB holding AJ on an Axx flop, and I'm going to need to call down with anything short of insane turn and river action on an ugly board, no? This seems like a very easy hand to become showdown committed in a big pot.

Yes, we have no reads, but how helpful are they here? If we know that all players are 15/5's or the SB is 60/1, then fine, easy fold. But, on the other hand, if 2 of the 3 players are super-aggressive, and one is mr. legit, it can still leave us in a bad situation post flop. Think something like a QQKA board vs. say a JTs an overagressive AJ or Ax and a KK who comes alive on the turn. Ok, so this is an extreme example, but I'm simply trying to illustrate that there are some flops where, not only do we end up second best, but we end up second best for 9+ additional BB's. It's quite reasonable to assume that if either SB or BB are on legit holdings, that our AQo is possibly drawing to 3 outs or fewer. So do we need to reevaluate our 7:1 number given the number of times we will pay off to the river and lose the pot, even if it only costs us 2.5-3 additional BB's?

Honestly, I'm surprised a couple of good players in this thread have advocated folding here, as I thought I was out of my mind when I did it; even though I feel like I can certainly rationalize reasons to do so. I mean, I fold AQ for 2 bets to an EP raiser all the time, so I'm not sure what makes this *that* different. Perhaps it's just one of those sitatuations that's so close and so infrequent that it doesn't matter much. I'm also genuinely surprised Tommy calls in this spot. Even though I was just kidding with him when I suggested he would fold pre-flop, (I meant before any action), I did think he would be the one player who easily lays down for 2 more here.

I'm still left feeling like this needs to just be a call pre-flop and then play solid poker post-flop, but I'm having lingering doubts that it's not that simple and I'm just being overly focused on the results from this one hand. Which is being more results oriented, seeing that you would have won the pot, or being statisfied that you made the right fold relative to your opponents holdings for that one hand, even if it turns out that correct play here is to call 100% - or even worse, seeing that it could have won you the pot?

Anyone have any other thoughts on this?

Nigel