Me vs. ICM

[suited_ace]

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I really don't see how you gain enough value keeping this bubble alive to make it worth pitching to the shortstack. Maybe if you were the one with 4135 chips. You are basically setting up the bigstack to abuse you and UTG.

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That's usually true, but in this case the big stack was absurdely passive, so I felt I could profit from the bubble running a little bit longer. During the bubble he raised only once, everyone folded and he showed AKs.

[Matt R.]

That's an unusual situation, and one that I think would be impossible for eastbay to model in his program.

[Scuba Chuck]

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1, push
2, complete
3, very easy fold
4, push

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This is just wrong. You would NEVER complete for #2. There's still that chance that he's a donk and folds his hand (which I have seen) because he's multi-tabling and he's hit the autofold button.

Furthermore, I think #4 is very debatable. Although I'm confident that ICM results will say that this is a positive EV play, it's not the smartest move IMO. There are many plays that are +EV that I never make.

[vinyard]

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ICM says hand #4 is a push, and it's not close. I don't care what it says, I don't like showing K5o in this spot. If the SB has half a brain, he's calling with NE2 cards in this spot.

I put hand #2 in the mix because in my experience this is the perfect situation to keep the bubble going. I ended up getting ITM with more than 3k chips thanks to the bubble running a little bit longer.

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As for the hands: Push, your choice**, Trivial Fold, Trivial Push.

**As for hand 2, not playing here when "it only costs you 100 chips to knock a player out" might annoy the other playes significantly. That may effect their calling standards. I likely fold this given your read on big stack.

If you (or anybody else) is not pushing that hand I consider it a leak that will significantly affect your ROI long term. I don't think eastbay's problem is the end all but the math here is pretty clear. I don't think you hurt your table image by pushing here (the BB will likely fold and if the SB calls you look like you are taking a risk to isolate the small stack and "help the table") and passing on edge's like this isn't wise.

I just busted out the program and this is a very clear push if both SB and BB are calling with any two.

[suited_ace]

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Furthermore, I think #4 is very debatable. Although I'm confident that ICM results will say that this is a positive EV play, it's not the smartest move IMO. There are many plays that are +EV that I never make.

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You phrased it way better than I ever could: there are a lot of situations that are +EV, but shouldn't be done. Again: it's a great tool, but it's not the holy grail.

[lastchance]

Not pushing K5o there if your opponents don't have 00ber-loose calling ranges is a huge leak. T150 matters that much. Table image doesn't when it's going to be ruined in a few hands.

There's a reason why ICM shows that #4 is an easy push. Because it is an easy push.

BTW, I push 1, 2, and 4, Fold 3.

[valenzuela]

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Furthermore, I think #4 is very debatable. Although I'm confident that ICM results will say that this is a positive EV play, it's not the smartest move IMO. There are many plays that are +EV that I never make.

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Care to explain why?

[ilya]

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Furthermore, I think #4 is very debatable. Although I'm confident that ICM results will say that this is a positive EV play, it's not the smartest move IMO. There are many plays that are +EV that I never make.

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You're right, I didn't look carefully enough. With the SB that short, I don't mind folding here.

[brimstone1]

1) Could pick better spot, but shortstack vs. midstack... I'd say close call, and you know what that means... PUSH.
2) Push
3) Fold
4) Fold

[SuitedSixes]

1) Push (Top 40% against a random hand)
2) Push
3) Fold
4) I'm leaning towards push.