3-bet, 2 street, 2 opponent bluff

[gonores]

[ QUOTE ]
I like your turn move for periodic meta game/strong/tough player set-the-tone play. But once he calls your turn c/r, I think you're drawing, not him, and check the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sat on this for a little bit and thought about it. The problem is I think 66/55 is too probable to not fire a third shell on the river.

[mike l.]

been there, done that. bad idea. mp has KT too often.

[Michael Davis]

I love this type of thinking and really think there's a lot more room for exploiting protected pots than most people realize. That being said, there's something about opponents being easy to read that makes this type of play not work enough. That seems convoluted but I think it's right.

-Michael

[geormiet]

I think perhaps the turn checkraise is a good play, but once both players call I don't like the plan to fire again on the river, unless it is a non club A or J.

UTG could have a flush draw, or a weak pair he's planning on folding unimproved, so if mp had folded, then I think betting the river is more clear.

However, a solid mp has a pretty narrow range of hands. KQs, 99-55 perhaps. Once he calls the turn checkraise, I'm not sure why he would fold to a river bet.

I'm approaching this on a somewhat simplistic level. I'm sure you've considered all this, and I'd like to hear your reasoning behind the non club river bet.

[mperich]

[ QUOTE ]
I love this type of thinking and really think there's a lot more room for exploiting protected pots than most people realize.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been thinking about this a lot lately, and I think it's a very interesting concept, especially as you move up in limits. If the players are good enough to understand protected pots, you should use your knowledge of their knowledge to an advantage. Or something.

-Mike

[gonores]

I sorta laid it out in an earlier post....I guess I should have said I'd bet on any non-club and non-six-or-five river card.

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]

been there, done that. bad idea. mp has KT too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a ballsy play no doubt, but I still like it if I can make them fold 30% of the time provided no club hits that river. In this case, given gonores read and how weak his players have been I like it. I also put one player on a draw and one player on a smaller pocket pair trying to keep gonores honest.

Lawrence

[gonores]

Club came on the river. UTG bet out, we both folded. Meh

I've been tinkering with this "protected pot bluffing" lately, and if there ever was a time to pull a protected-pot bluff, this sure seems like it. I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed an overcorrection by ok-to-great players who fold for one more bet on the turn after subsequent callers. Anyone else seeing this lately? It's one of those things that go undetected by pokertracker, so I guess it's pretty hard to notice if you aren't looking for it. I'm guessing I'll end up posting another bluff or two that look similar to this in the next week.

[Stormwolf]

[ QUOTE ]
Club came on the river. UTG bet out, we both folded. Meh

I've been tinkering with this "protected pot bluffing" lately, and if there ever was a time to pull a protected-pot bluff, this sure seems like it. I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed an overcorrection by ok-to-great players who fold for one more bet on the turn after subsequent callers. Anyone else seeing this lately? It's one of those things that go undetected by pokertracker, so I guess it's pretty hard to notice if you aren't looking for it. I'm guessing I'll end up posting another bluff or two that look similar to this in the next week.

[/ QUOTE ]

would be interesting if PT had Ciaffone's call-fold ratio

[Peter_rus]

I don't like c/r-ing turn here. I estimate your folding equity against 2 players on turn and river (if you bet river blank) around 10% that doesn't worths enough to put so much money in. Ok, add up 6% to pick up quite possibly dirty ace. Even if it will be nuts, along with you FE it doesn't worth so much bets i believe.

Would you c/r 77, or KK or maybe AA, AK here routinely against 2 players who called flop and flush draw on board and 1 passive on board who able to check his flush draw? I doubt this. Anyway even if you do c/r here often - it's quite rare situation overall and i think it doesn't worth a coin in metagame purposes.

I prefer to make moves in more common (and usually cheaper) situations, which routinely happen during a game as rarest ones usually make people to make 'suspisious' calls at least online when they don't see your honest eyes.

Maybe im start to be to straigtforward last time.. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]