500BB

[joker122]

what? at 5/10? i refuse to believe this. could you send me a chunk of hands?

[MAxx]

wo. i'd usually say something like:

It's a Cold World, Baby Girl... and mean that in a mocking, quit your bitchin, and tuffin up you big ole pussy kind of way.

So I'll just say:

It's a cold world, baby girl.... and mean that in an empathetic and heartfelt way. Tuff stuff, bro.

[Turning Stone Pro]

Thought I had it turned around, but it is getting worse. Gonna have to take a break for awhile.

TSP

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

300BB here.

I've done a lot of evaluation and have found a number of big-ass leaks. Made a lot of adjustments. Still down 100BB since the adjustments, but am cool with it.

-Milo

[Rudis]

I started 5/10 with 110k hands 2.3BB/100. After that I had a 635BB downswing in 27k hands. The following 20k hands I'm up the downswing and more.
I credit 450BB to variation and the other 235 to my game not being able to handle hitting too few flops and tilting, and not adjusting.
I read the chapter in Poker Essays II (or was it 1?) about downswings - it helped.

[kiddo]

Ugh, I have had two +350BB swings. One at 5/10 and one at 10/20. The later one stretched for nearly 2 months before it turned around for real. Im still playing worse then I did before that 2 months stretch.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
I know someone who's played 200 something thousand hands at 5/10 short and didn't experience a 200 bb downswing until recently. then I know someone else who's had probably 3 or 4 over 1/4 of the other guy's sample, and he plays tighter. so your anecdotal evidence that 400 BB shouldn't happen because it hasnt' happened to you over a loooong period of time is meaningful but I don't think it's anywhere near conclusive. I think looking at stinkypete's graph where he's winning about 3 bb/100 over a lot of hands, with a 400 BB downswing in the middle makes it pretty obvious that these things just happen. I went through a 450 BB downer in a ridiculously small number of hands. on either sides of that I must be running at 4 combined. it's just a weird game.

so I don't think we can write him off yet. didn't schneids have a pretty massive 15/30 downswing? anything is possible and while it's unlikely that he's a winner, it's still possible. logically he should be beating it. but think about it. there are probably 300 people who post on HUSH at least occasionally. you figure one of them will at one point in time hti a downer that bad. it just happened to be him.

moving down is probably a good idea. hiring someone like Alobar who apparently coaches (didn't know till todya) and who also has gone through rough stretches of his own would probably be a worthwhile investment. getting someone better than you to at least say "you must be running bad because I'm sure you're a winner" would be a huge boost of confidence, or "dude you suck" would probably be a good way for you to realize that you're goign about it the right way, or shorthanded play is not right.

I didn't read your post well the first time so I seemed to be disagreeing with points that you didn't make, so just ignore the fact that I'm even replying. sorry I'm late. I guess this makes me a chook?

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC schnieds started the 15 off with a nice $10k+ downer or so combined, if not more.

I think that given the 5/10 6m style and such that some of the 500BB may be tilt/leaks, but a lot of it could still be variance. Really really really sucks that it happened though.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh, I have had two +350BB swings. One at 5/10 and one at 10/20. The later one stretched for nearly 2 months before it turned around for real. Im still playing worse then I did before that 2 months stretch.

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't understand. You seem unhappy about +350BB swings?

On another note, in my limited knowledge of 5/10 6max, I have only had a -120BB swing. This is because I've been trying to cutmyself off and I've been trying to be careful. Even though my bankroll is about 800BBs losing $1000 in a day makes me sick to my stomach so I try to avoid such days.

On a third note, how many hands have you played to lose 500BBs? I don't know if you can be a winning player with a 500BB downswing, unless it happened in a very short number of hands.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if you can be a winning player with a 500BB downswing, unless it happened in a very short number of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can be a winning player and suffer a 500 BB downswing over 50k hands. The greatest player on earth may lose every hand of poker for the rest of his life. Is either likely? No, but both are possible.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if you can be a winning player with a 500BB downswing, unless it happened in a very short number of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can be a winning player and suffer a 500 BB downswing over 50k hands. The greatest player on earth may lose every hand of poker for the rest of his life. Is either likely? No, but both are possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right of course, but we can say with some percent of certainty that he is a losing player IMO.