Paul Phillips WSOP Hand

[SossMan]

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You can't come back from zero.

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you are on the wrong forum

[Double Eagle]

Can I take my tongue out of my cheek now?

[Sluss]

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Can I take my tongue out of my cheek now?

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No, I want to see if Soss can find some more absurd links. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[DonT77]

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[adanthar]

Time to play devil's advocate: I would need to think for a while before calling, and that alone is a good reason to open push in the first place.

With 4800 in the pot PP has to expect a button push a pretty decent portion of the time and a pot committing bet most of the rest. He wants AK to fold, as well...I think this is a push if he's going to play this hand for all his chips.

edit: Looked at the results and realized I forgot the blinds/antes so there's actually 6K there. Yeah, I think he has to push.

[A_PLUS]

The responses on his blog gave me mixed emotions.

I feel like a backup QB who finally gets a chance to start, but only b/c the starting QB broke his neck. Yes, it is better for my long term financial health that players think like that, but it is just so depressing to read.

[fnord_too]

Unless he is up against an overpair or a 9 or a bigger flush draw he's a favorite here. (ok, 50/50 against something like AJ, no heart). I would much rather have gotten the FE from the c/r, but otherwise it is close. Against AA-77, AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo, KQs this is just minus EV from a TEC standpoint I think. The fact that villain open pushed the flop probably means he does not want a call, which means pp is probably ahead here.

I don't think either option is that bad really. Far from the money I favor calling, otherwise I think I need more situational info (players remaining, payout schedule, etc) to decide.

After reading the blog, I may have done my EV calculation incorrectly (I had a baby on my lap.) If his number of 38% win to break even is right this is an easy call.

[woodguy]

PP's comments here should be a sticky post in this forum.

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I can fold and have 10K or call and have 26K 50% of the time and 0 50% of the time. For me to fold I have to believe that my tournament equity with 26K in chips is less than double my equity with 10K in chips.

I dunno about anyone else's chip->equity functions but mine more than doubles from 10K to 26K.

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Regards,
Woodguy

[ClaytonN]

Villain could have an overpair or high cards, but he could also easily have a wired pair below a 9, reading PP for high cards.

We can formulate a range of hands with some kind of program and determine our equity, but with an estimation I would put Paul's chance of winning this hand somewhere around 35 to 40 percent, given villain's (probable) hand range.

The fact that Paul has already 2.4k of hs 13k stack should be reason enough for the call, when you determine $EV and real EV, if that makes sense.

This is the kind of decision you wabt to make if your objective is winning the tournament versus moving up in pay structures. Correct me if I'm wrong, but PP's strategy is the former, I believe.

[Masquerade]

It's an uber-donkey call. At best you're around 50%-50%, at worst 20%-30%. According to PP the pot odds meant that he needed 38% so let's be generous over the range of hands the opponent might have had and accept that it was break-even. However when criticised PP flies into a rage about giving away fistfuls of +EV. THERE WAS NO +EV OVER THAT RANGE OF HANDS. And using the post-event known equity of 49.6% to justify the play is crazy as we don't have that useful piece of information when making decisions.

However there's a far more fundamental error in all this analysis - this was a tournament. In a cash game you can evaluate each and every hand on its merits and accept that this call was borderline OK. However in a tournament the additional chips gained, together with an increased expectation of prize money, do not balance the very real, in fact likely, outcome of being busted. Having more chips at that early stage is good, but not that good. And if you're a superior player than the field then that superiority should translate to creating better situations than 50-50 (at best) to get all your money in.