10/25 at The Rio

[ObnxNole]

[ QUOTE ]
fold to the preflop raise

[/ QUOTE ]
You're kidding right- I risk $300 to double up on my 6k. Im getting 20:1 implied odds.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold to the preflop raise

[/ QUOTE ]

NO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, fine, obviously call.

I just get angry paying 12x the bb....

[sirtimo]

why not bet the turn???

this looks more like AQ than AA to me

[Alexthegreat]

Is KK not a possibility here??

[JoeC]

I was thinking the same. Is he tricky enough to bet the 3k on the end with KK?

[chuddo]

autofold.

you only beat AQ. AA, and QQ are legitimate holdings given the action. Even JJ is possible, as a number of players will take one off if they don't believe your flop raise.

[Yeti]

It's very rare that I agree 100% with a hand posted on here. This is one such time. Perfect.

[technologic]

question

what do you do if he checks the river? what's the purpose of the check on the turn? to see the river bet to "verify" that he has a set of aces?

[neon]

Hey Nole,

A question: have you ever seen this guy overbet the pot before?

To me, the overbet seems like one of three hands: KK that can't [censored] believe an ace fell on the turn, and is trying to buy it, thinking he's up against AQ; JJ, psyched w/ the river and hoping you'll think he's stealing; or AA, trying to make up for no money going in on the turn. It could also be AQ I suppose.

Anyway, though, it's a big laydown, but I think you're probably correct in doing so often enough to make it the right play.

Nh.

-neon.

[cero_z]

Hi Nole,

Tough laydown, but given your description of this player, I'm surprised you had a decision to make on the turn. That is, if I didn't push on the flop, I'd raise it so much that I was committed. You didn't even make a pot-sized raise (to 2050); I would've made it AT LEAST 3000 against a guy who can't get off overpairs. If he has QQ, fine. If he calls me with AA/KK/AQ and somehow wins the pot, fine. If he folds, he probably wasn't as strong as you thought anyway.

[ QUOTE ]
Villian quickly calls. Before the turn comes I tell myself that if Ace or King falls I am crushed.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is the part of your thinking that really bothers me. The operative word there is "OR". Meaning, one of those cards beats you, but you don't know which one, and I'll assume you think it's equally likely that he holds AA and KK. When the Ace falls, the chance that he has AA is now 1/2 the chance he has KK. It seems like you just decided that if either card fell, you were done with that 3K pot; this is no good, IMO.

Given your description of your opponent, I think you did make a good laydown on the river. If the turn card had been a King, I would say there's not enough info to fold. This guy seems to be the type not to slow down too much with AA on a K-high board. KK on an A-high board is different; now I question whether he's tough enough to make it 3000 with just KK. I also doubt he's bad enough to do this with AQ (or tough enough to try the same bluff with top 2, representing a set), though it's possible.