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#11
06-26-2005, 06:18 PM
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Re: Depressing stat
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] toro- this stat isnt really depressing for a yankee fan. its pretty meaningless. if you take a current .500 team you should be able to find a 'depressing' stat or two. a .380 team and you could find a few more. [/ QUOTE ] Nah, it's rather meaningful. This is a team that has grabbed up a lot of SP talent over the years, and when you are so bad when your offense doesn't show up, that demonstrates how badly this team's starters are doing. [/ QUOTE ] i suck at figuring this stuff out. if the league average winning % is .160 when scoring three or less (this cant be correct. a weighted average must be given to 0-3 runs scored), the team is .500 overall then what are the chances of a team going 0-24 over a given stretch when scoring three or less? maybe i can post this in probability. jack- can you help me with some stats. like how much more often teams land on zero runs as opposed to 3. 
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#13
06-26-2005, 10:30 PM
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Re: Depressing stat
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bump- i want to figure this out [/ QUOTE ] They just said it on ESPN. Seems the Mets have won 8 games this year scoring 3 runs or less. Wheels falling off the wagon in the 7th for the yanks.
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#15
06-27-2005, 02:13 AM
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Re: Depressing stat
[ QUOTE ]
no i want to figure out the statistical possibilty that it happens. [/ QUOTE ] Well, it isn't .322. You'd have to figure out how many times they've scored each (0, 1, 2, and 3) and find out their expected won-loss. It's probably somewhere around 5 or 6 games under projection... which isn't hard to do, especially because these games are likely close (see: White Sox and Nats playing way above projeciton in 1 run games).
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#16
06-27-2005, 02:19 AM
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Re: Depressing stat
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] no i want to figure out the statistical possibilty that it happens. [/ QUOTE ] Well, it isn't .322. You'd have to figure out how many times they've scored each (0, 1, 2, and 3) and find out their expected won-loss. It's probably somewhere around 5 or 6 games under projection... which isn't hard to do, especially because these games are likely close (see: White Sox and Nats playing way above projeciton in 1 run games). [/ QUOTE ] too much work. if my intuition serves me correctly, the 'stat' is just a statistical abberation and doesnt really mean anything (considering thier overall record of course)
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#17
06-27-2005, 02:32 AM
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Re: Depressing stat
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] no i want to figure out the statistical possibilty that it happens. [/ QUOTE ] Well, it isn't .322. You'd have to figure out how many times they've scored each (0, 1, 2, and 3) and find out their expected won-loss. It's probably somewhere around 5 or 6 games under projection... which isn't hard to do, especially because these games are likely close (see: White Sox and Nats playing way above projeciton in 1 run games). [/ QUOTE ] 5.38 games to be exact. However, if you factor in the fact that the Yanks have allowed 0 runs 5 times, 1 run 3 times, and 2 runs 8 times, then you get adjusted WPCT's of 0 runs - .000 1 run - .0667 2 runs - .1067 3 runs - .2133 which projects to just 3.37 wins for their 25 games with 3 or fewer runs.
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#19
07-04-2005, 11:58 PM
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Re: Depressing stat
Assuming that a team has a .160 probability of winning when scoring 3 runs or less, then the probability of them undergoing an 0 for 24 streak is 1/65.66.
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