Strange Spot

[einbert]

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He's an absolute moron if he folds a better hand than yours here.

I like your line if he's capable of it though.

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Would you fold QQ or KK here if a TAG lead into you in this spot?

-SmileyEH

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HU in a 9 BB pot, not a chance in hell. But I do play higher than this where the TAGs tend to be more aggressive.

[SmileyEH]

Fair enough. I think at 2/4 I would usually make the fold unless the player was on the laggy side.

-SmileyEH

[Nate tha' Great]

I don't know if I buy that he's just calling QQ/KK before the flop. The high postflop aggression numbers seem to indicate that he is capable of strong play when he does have a strong hand. More likely I think we're looking at 99-JJ here, or maybe a big ace-club hand.

btw, I think there's a decent argument here for just calling preflop.

[SmileyEH]

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I don't know if I buy that he's just calling QQ/KK before the flop. The high postflop aggression numbers seem to indicate that he is capable of strong play when he does have a strong hand. More likely I think we're looking at 99-JJ here, or maybe a big ace-club hand.

btw, I think there's a decent argument here for just calling preflop.

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You basically summed up my doubts in this hand. If he indeed does fold to my turn bet it might be that he just gave up with JJ-99 - not necessarily a terrible thing, but still mostly nonproductive. On the other hand I don't have to put any more bets in the pot with complete confidence if I get raised. I hadn't thought about calling preflop, I'll keep it in mind for the future.

-SmileyEH

[bozlax]

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Aggression numbers are calculated as bet + raises divided by calls. So a person with high agg. factors (like over 2 or 3) usually folds too much because they don't call enough. It's not a rock solid read, but I have decent confidence in the fact he makes too many folds from his numbers.

-SmileyEH

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Um, ok, I see the logic, but aren't most TAGs in the 2-3 range for postflop agg? In the absence of other specific evidence I'm not sure I make a read this critical to the play I'm putting on, based on an interpretation of a PT stat (especially when an equally viable alternative interpretation is that if he's holding KK/QQ and an ace comes up he'll raise your open bet on the turn, no?).

That said, I think I like the play, but what's your plan if raised on the turn?

[SmileyEH]

I fold quickly if I'm raised.

-SmileyEH