Winning pots VS Theory of Poker - Page 2

maddog2030 · #1 06-23-2005, 03:04 PM

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Let me in on your secret.

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Red bull.

__Q__ · #2 06-23-2005, 01:52 PM

If you bet large and he folds, then there is no chance that you will bust out of the tournament and there is value in that beyond just what is in the pot. Since survial itself has value in tournaments, you need to add that "value" to the pots when you calculate your pot odds. In order to compensate for the value of survival, you want to force your opponents to make bigger mistakes than you would in a cash game.

The bigger you bet, the bigger the mistake your opponent makes if he calls. If he does call, you need the chips you get for the bigger mistake to compensate for the fact that you are putting your survival at risk.

Unfortunately, I don't have a good formula for how to balance all this. Its hard because you have to consider both your position in the tournament (to determine exactly valuable riskless survival is) and what other player is willing to call.

Bigwig · #3 06-23-2005, 02:04 PM

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But once I bet 150 into the pot, if he does the right thing and folds, aren't I losing money? Wouldn't I profit more if he were to call?

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Yes, you would profit more if he called. That would be a mistake by your opponent. Therefore, you bet enough that it makes it a poor play to call. And you did. If he folds, so what? It would have been better for him to call (for you) but far worse for you if you slapped 75 out there and he called getting odds.

microbet · #4 06-23-2005, 02:10 PM

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Let's say I hold AhAd and the flop comes K82 with 2 spades and the pot is T200 and my opponent has his QsJs face up on the table. 'Take the pot down now' says to bet and force him to fold so I can win the chips and increase my stack by 10% or 15% or whatever. But once I bet 150 into the pot, if he does the right thing and folds, aren't I losing money? Wouldn't I profit more if he were to call?

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If you give him a free card you are offering him infinite odds on his draw. TOP does not recommend giving a free card here. You will profit when you opponent makes mistakes, but you must give him the opportunity to make a mistake. If you both lay your cards on the table here, you should bet something that would make it -$EV for him to call and hope he doesn't calculate as well as you do.

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So lets say he calls, making the pot T500. The turn is a blank. If we both started with 800 chips, we've got 550 left each. Now with the pot being bigger I'm faced with the same dilemma. If know for a fact that he will fold to an all-in, and I also know for a fact that he will call a bet of 300 (2.6:1, a terrible call), how do I weigh the value of forcing him to make a correct play vs. risking the majority of my stack for a very profitable play?

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Let him make the biggest mistake you think he is likely to make. Remember though in a tournament, chips do not all have the same value and you can't just go by pot odds. Conventional thought is that you will need to bet more here in a tournament because you want to be called less than you do in a cash game.

Scuba Chuck · #5 06-23-2005, 03:27 PM

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Conventional thought is that you will need to bet more here in a tournament because you want to be called less than you do in a cash game.

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I've never seen this line before, but it's well put.

Pokerscott · #6 06-23-2005, 02:22 PM

Variance is generally a bad thing in a SnG.

Think about this example: First hand of a SnG. You are BB and SB flips over their cards (say QJs) and goes all-in. What type of hand do you call with?

In a ring game you would call with any hand that was a favorite against QJs (ignoring the overlay from the blinds at the moment). In a tournament that is not the right answer. You need to be about a 55% favorite in order to make that call. Why? Well any time you are involved in the action in a tournament, the other players are generally winning at the expense of the players fighting. The absolute best table you can hope for is to be at a table where all the other players constantly go all-in. At this table you can fold your way to 2nd place every time (woohoo 200% ROI!).

In your example, getting called increases your chip variance which is bad for you (and the caller which is important to realize end-game). Thus, you need to factor that into the straight pot-odds calculation.

By betting more than the straight pot odds imply you can either get lower variance due to a fold (good) or get paid more due to a call (good)

Pokerscott

valenzuela · #7 06-23-2005, 10:51 PM

I call with JJ+, any ace, any king.

the_joker · #8 06-23-2005, 07:32 PM

Here's a good example of this... Should I just push this turn? I got greedy with not so good results [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] ($33 buyin)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter

Hero (t1405)
SB (t3355)
BB (t810)
UTG (t1645)
UTG+1 (t1595)
MP1 (t1120)
MP2 (t2590)
CO (t980)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls t30, MP2 calls t30, CO calls t30, Hero calls t30, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t180) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets t150, SB calls t150, BB folds, MP1 calls t150, MP2 folds, CO folds.

Turn: (t630) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets t400, SB calls t400, MP1 folds.

River: (t1430) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t960, Hero calls t825 (All-In).

Final Pot: t3215

lastchance · #9 06-23-2005, 07:36 PM

I do the odd smaller than usual bet thing too. It's bad. Not only does pushing shut draws out, it also gets called because "it looks fishy."

Scuba Chuck · #10 06-23-2005, 10:37 PM

Joker, your turn move is very difficult with this board. Let me repeat the board here:

5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Not only are there two flush draws, but also an obvious straight draw. In this instance, IMO, your turn bet is ur defining bet. This is the bet where you decide if you put anymore chips in the pot. Your turn bet was check smooth called by SB who then led out on the river. It's a little bit difficult to assess this move, because I don't have a buyin for this hand, but that's a very difficult river bet to call. There's so many hands that beat you.

In the end, I think your turn bet was the "right" amount. The lead bet by SB is so strange to me. Generally, I'd fear a t400 chip bet (half your remaining stack) more than a bet that puts you allin. This is a move, though, that is often done by an amateur who maybe has a set or the straight and fears the flush. Who knows?

This hand is a great example of how things can get away with you. IF SB has chased the flush draw horribly wrong, then so be it. But he may have the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], like the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], or T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], or even better the Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] then you can't fault him too much for chasing, in fact you generally prefer it.

In the end, you need to put your Flush sniffer on in these hands, and be sure not to pay off someone chasing, by sniffing it out. This hand played very strange though, if villain really does have the flush.