Is this play +ev?

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
Against this player you're either up against KK and AK once he 3bets the turn. I think half the time he won't 3bet TPTK. There is still 12 combinations of AK but only 3 for KK. I think you can cap the turn. When he raises you on the rive ryou have to call though. I think you played it fine.

edit: I didn't even include the AA combinations which makes this an even easier cap.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

if he only 3bets 50% of the time with AK, I think 3-betting the turn is EV-.

here's your equity against 6 combos of AK and all KK:

Board: 9d 9s 3s Kc
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.1364 % 51.14% 00.00% { KK, AsKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AsKd, AsKh }
Hand 2: 48.8636 % 48.86% 00.00% { As9c }


you are behind here. If he's 3-betting AK 2/3 of the time:

Board: 9d 9s 3s Kc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.4886 % 39.49% 00.00% { KK, AhKh, AsKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh }
Hand 2: 60.5114 % 60.51% 00.00% { As9c }

now we're a 3:2 favorite. However!! the 3 times we're ahead we only win 2 (he is calling our river bet), and the 2 times we're behind we lose three, so it's EV neutral.

and I don't think we can assume he's 3betting 66% of the time.

[bobhalford]

I think this is a definite fold preflop because you are most likely dominated, especially with this type of opponent (nut peddler). If an Ace flops, you have no idea where you stand, especially when there are other broadway cards on the board that could make a set for him. You received the ideal flop with 3 nines and still lost a bundle. On the turn, as much as you want to jam it, his 3-bet says "I have KK and I see you have a 9"

[SmileyEH]

I think if you include the AA combinations its kosher.

-SmileyEH

[Padawan Learner]

Crunchy:

[ QUOTE ]
8.5/4.25/12.5 = nut peddling

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely. I think too often people misinterpret high aggression factors as genral laginess or playing aggressively with mediocre hands, when it generally means (certainly when accompanied by 8.5% VPIP and 4.5% pfr) nut peddling....fit or fold mentality.

BTW, I think the preflop call is pretty bad agaisnt this player.

[LinusKS]

This is an interesting hand.

Preflop, I think I probably fold, but getting 5.5:1, I can't argue too much. The problem is, if you're playing only trips or two pair, I'm not sure even five to one is enough, and trying to play a pair of aces or nines against him is almost bound to be -EV.

On the flop, I play the same. In position, I probably raise, but oop, I don't want to take the lead until the turn. He's a big dog to catch up, and I'm willing to give the cheap card, in hopes of making more later on.

When he three-bets, alarms should go off, but all in all, I think probably capping is correct. I think he might very well three-bet with AA or AK, and KK is the only hand in the deck you're behind to. There's no way you're behind here more than 50%.

I think you played the river fine. You don't want him to check behind you, but in paying any more when he raises.

It looks like you played it well to me. If he had KK, he hit a two-outer. Not too much you can do about that.

You should consider leaving results out in the future, you'll get better advice that way.


Edit: You said, "I think capping the turn costs me three extra bets."

Which bets are you talking about? I see the cap only costs you one, unless you were considering folding to his three-bet on the turn, which I think would be insane.