A hypothetical WSOP: ME bubble situation

[11t]

I call instantly.

I would not play in the main event if my goal was to cash, I'd sell my seat. Folding into the money is for weak-tight players who never win anything.

[locutus2002]

Easy fold.

You are on the bubble with the most flat payout structure. (assuming your not gonna place more than 500th).

Given the flat payout structure, you want the payout with the least variance. Let's say you can fold into the money 80% of the time and QQ is 80% against any two. With a large number of players (605) its going to have a much lower variance (around the mean) than a single hand (law of large numbers). The QQ is going to have at least a 20% variance around the mean (if you win).

[adanthar]

This is a math question. I don't know what the payouts are but basically the question is how much your EV increases when you double up, and I believe that when the average ITM stack is something like 100,000 and you have [I think it's safe to say no more than 10K because the blinds can't be that high yet], you should fold everything.

[locutus2002]

I should have used the word variation. So as not to confuse it with the statistical term variance, but they have the same significance (to different degrees).

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically I'm assuming by folding this you will make the money, but will make the money w/ very low chips and only 3-4 hands to play.

I would think very hard about folding this.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really can't guarantee that with 3 BB. Antes in the WSOP are like 1/4 of a blind. And everyone else will be playing as tight as you.

Imagine the next hand you get dealt Aces. How dumb will you feel because you folded the Queens?

I was watching GoldenHorde play a final table yesterday, he was a shortstack with 6 BB and he came back to have a 6.5:1 chiplead HU without all that much luck.

Realize that at the bubble of the WSOP ME, most of the shortstacks are going to be playing very tight. You can't guarantee the bubble will burst within 10 hands.

[tworooks]

u take as long as the time allows, until the dealer is about to make u fold, just to give time to other people to bust. then u call.

[Jurollo]

[ QUOTE ]
I call instantly.

I would not play in the main event if my goal was to cash, I'd sell my seat. Folding into the money is for weak-tight players who never win anything.

[/ QUOTE ]
Stupid argument as almost all sites are non transferrable. Essentially what you have to do here is apply satellite strategy. Top 600 pay, 605 left and the blinds are hitting you now, you can survive these blinds and another orbit which for all intents and purposes guarantees you money. The assumption is that your BR is LESS than the lowest prize (I am in a similar situation in this year's ME).
In satellite play this is a fairly straight forward fold and if the OP is truly only going for ITM then this is an easy fold IMHO. You would need to be sure that you are going to make the money and fully understand that you lose any folding equity for the rest of your tournament sans a double or triple up. Another factor that would need to be considered is the size of the SB, is he small and trying to stay alive here? is he a big stack and could be pushing with any two? Things like this come into play and as much as I want to take down $15K when it was all said and done I want to make a deeper run and would regrettably call and hope it holds. You would have to keep in mind that SB is getting implied odds on a push here with any 2 due to the FE he is getting on you. It all comes down to what directive A is for you in the WSOP, make the money or make a run at BIG money.
~Justin

[billyjex]

[ QUOTE ]
u take as long as the time allows, until the dealer is about to make u fold, just to give time to other people to bust. then u call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wondered about this. Do they play hand for hand at bubble time at the WSOP? I imagine with how big the field is hand for hand w/ 60+ tables would be ridiculous.

[billyjex]

[ QUOTE ]
I call instantly.

I would not play in the main event if my goal was to cash, I'd sell my seat. Folding into the money is for weak-tight players who never win anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand this tournament concept of playing to win. However, this is such a big event that just cashing is nice for me. When I say that, that does not mean i'm playing weak tight the whole tournament. I'm saying a very specific example of putting your tournament on the line at the bubble when folding guarantees you 15k.

[Kevmath]

It was hand for hand last year when it went to 225. I'm sure the same will happen when playing down to 660, creating poker's longest hand for hand period ever.

Kevin...