TT hand, overcard on the flop - Page 2

WSOP Bound · #11 06-15-2005, 12:03 PM

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Turn: (6.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

A blank on the turn. I feel like I should bet this, but want to see what Button does. If he bets I figure I can assume ace. But a weak ace would likely call here, so I still wouldn't know where I stand.

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tell me how do you can see, what Button does, when you not bet? If you want to see the reaction of a Person behind you must bet if it is checked to you.
Yes every Ace wins here against you, but first you have 2 outs against the ace (not much, but it is a chance) and here he is able to have many hands:
AX
KQ
KJ
K5
Q5

I think only against BB you will win 50% and more.

MP1 is in one of 3 situations (take his Trackerstats to decide in which of these possibilitys you can eliminate):
-he is on a draw (2 hearts, a 6 or a 2)
-he is a calling station (he holds everything and/or nothing)
-he slowplays a wheel (holds 23)

in 2 of these 3 Situations it is a big mistake to check and give that guy a free card. Only if you are sure more than 60% here, that you can eliminate the first 2 Situations you are able to switch to check.
So you must bet, because a check is more positive for the other 2 players.
Another reason for bet is, that 6.5 BB is not a small Pot. You want that pot and your hand is marginal. So you must protect it. Check/Raise is no option here, because BB will only bet, if you are really beaten. Thats why you must bet.

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River: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero ???

Another blank, so I'm feeling like there is a decent chance that I'm good here. But if I bet am I winning this 33% of the time?

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Because you didnt bet the turn, you are here in a very bad situation:
- you dont know the holding of anybody
-you have 2 opponents and a marginal hand
- If you bet, you have a good chance to get raised and then you must pay 2 bets, on the other hand, if both have nothing you get no money. most times you bet and have the best hand, you get 1 or no bet, so in average maybe 0.9 BB for 1 BB. If you are behind, the chances are good that one of these guys raises , and you pay 2 BB.

No Information means here, no chance to think that nobody will raise or that you have very good chances that both call if you are not behind. If you had bet the Turn, you maybe would have some Information now...
You must check the river here.

If you bet the turn and both guys call, you are in a better situation:
now they are calling stations or have a hand.
With Pokertracker you can answer the following questions:
- are they calling stations?
-what are their hands? (everytime do NOT think: he must have AA or anything like this. You must think, he has a 40% chance to hold AA, 23% to hold 73o and so on. Dont fear to give wrong percentages. You will learn to give the right percentages if you try to think so in every hand you play!)

Now you are able to think you can win 33% or not! Without a turnbet here, you cant count your winning chances!

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Thank you, this was the type of insight into what I should be considering that I was looking for. I appreciatte the advice since I always have difficulty playing these hands.