WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker

[slickpoppa]

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The sports gambling forum offered these odds.

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Yeah, I saw that. Those are a jopke

[iraise50]

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You think Hellmuth has a better shot than Ivey? I disagree [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Ivey's still a young whippersnapper. Hellmuth has the years of experience, superior intelligence, and attitude.

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Phil Hellmuth has superior ATTITUDE than anyone, let alone Phil Ivey? Phil Ivey is a stone cold killer at the table, Hellmuth is a stone cold crybaby. Annie Duke nearly sent him into a coma. He's a smart guy, I like him, but...Ivey is a much better player IMHO.

Ivey 100:1
Hellmuth: 750:1
Brunson 100:1
Lederer 100:1
Greenstien: 250:1
Raymer 750:1
Me 5,000:1
Men the Master 100:1
Moneymaker 4,999:1

[Blackjack]

I think Gigabet at 120:1 would be a great bet for shits and giggles to make the final table.

Blackjack

[Sluss]

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How dare they not offer odds on me!

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They read your avatar and realized you weren't thinking clearly. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Degen]

Dan Harrington 450:1
Phil Ivey 500:1
Helmuth 500:1
Me: 3000:1

[Degen]

ivey was 27 last time i read his age....could be 28 now

[Che]

The real odds: [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

a) Phil Ivey 600:1
b) Phil Hellmuth 700:1
c) MLG 1000:1
d) Che 13421:1

Sidenote: Anyone who thinks that there is a person alive who is even 3 times more likely to win than Raymer has not been paying attention IMHO.

Later,
Che

[slickpoppa]

How can you seriously say that Ivey, or anyone for that matter, is 600:1? That would mean that it would be correct for him to fold any preflop all-in where he is less than a 10:1 favorite.

[Che]

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That would mean that it would be correct for him to fold any preflop all-in where he is less than a 10:1 favorite.

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That might be the implication of being 10x better than average in a 10-player sit-n-go, but I don't think that's the case in a 6600 player multi with high stack/blind ratios.

Three things are required to win the WSOP:

1. Ability to bully effectively.
2. Willingness to get your chips in when you're the favorite.
3. Good cards.

Ivey has 1&2 in spades and no one can control #3 so I rate his chances of winning much, much higher than average. 600:1 may be too optimistic, but not by too much IMHO.

You win multi's like the WSOP by taking your shots when you are the favorite over and over without ever taking a crippling bad beat, not by folding everything but the nuts because you're "a better player."

Seems like there have been discussions like this one before. Hmmmmm...

BTW I wasn't trying to be exact with my odds. If that had been my goal, I would have said:

Che 18372:1 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[burningyen]

I'm giving myself 12,000-18,000:1. I have no idea what to expect as far as the skill level of the field, so I'm just guessing that I'm about 1/2 to 1/3 as good as the average player.

Your odds on the pros look close enough for me.