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#11
06-10-2005, 03:23 AM
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Re: BD flush makes, doesn\'t feel good
You have two overcards and the back door nut-flush draw on a pretty ragged board. Your equity is most likely greater than 20%, so it is value bet. Plus, you may get a hand like AK to fold, which would be good.
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#12
06-10-2005, 03:26 AM
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Re: BD flush makes, doesn\'t feel good
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know why everyone is so excited for this river to get capped. The player read did not say "opponent cannot read the board." If there's a four-flush, you have the nut flush, and your opponent is willing to cap and he is reasonable (all of which are met here), AND you just woke up all of a sudden, which has got to be scary for him, so guess what? You ain't winning. Really, let's be a little more thoughtful than "Me have good hand. Me raise now." [/ QUOTE ] MP2 is betting with position, he could have overcards like KQ with a spade draw. There's so many hands that play the same way, if he's got the full house I'll pay him off, but until then I cap the Ace high flush everytime.
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#13
06-10-2005, 03:27 AM
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Re: BD flush makes, doesn\'t feel good
[ QUOTE ]
And if my opponent has 42, 47, or 48 here, I want to pay him off so he plays it again. [/ QUOTE ] Uh...yeah...I hate money too. I'm not even sure I'm against the 3-bet, but if people really think that they are going to win against a cap almost ever in this situation, they're not thinking very hard.
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#14
06-10-2005, 03:32 AM
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Re: BD flush makes, doesn\'t feel good
I'm not so sure about this equity calculation (FWIW, I probably bet here like always). 20% might be about right...however, this only makes it a value bet if everyone calls (ie, we win more than our fair share). 1) This will almost never be the case and while 2) some hands will fold that will either allow us to win be spiking a T or A or even win unimproved, which enhance our equity somewhat, 3) in general the hands that call will often be ahead of us/have some of our outs tainted, so paradoxically the more people that call us and the closer they make it to a value bet, the less likely it is that our equity is as high as 20% (or 33% if 2 people call, etc) and therefore probably makes this a non-value bet in that case. If this makes any sense.
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#15
06-10-2005, 03:33 AM
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Re: BD flush makes, doesn\'t feel good
You can 3-bet this river if you can safely fold to a cap, which you probably can. I can't think of many players who will cap here with the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I think 95% of the time you'll 3-bet this and just get called, which is what you want.
You'll so rarely get capped (because he so rarely has a boat), that this is a standard 3-bet. But fold to a cap.
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#16
06-10-2005, 03:34 AM
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Re: BD flush makes, doesn\'t feel good
</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
2) Re-raise the river, you have the nuts [/ QUOTE ] Go home, little boy. There's a fruit roll-up and a bottle of Sunny Delight waiting for you. Plus a nice game of Go Fish.
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#17
06-10-2005, 03:36 AM
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Re: BD flush makes, doesn\'t feel good
[ QUOTE ]
You have two overcards and the back door nut-flush draw on a pretty ragged board. Your equity is most likely greater than 20%, so it is value bet. Plus, you may get a hand like AK to fold, which would be good. [/ QUOTE ] i'm not sure how you figure the number of 20% and the value bet given that there are 4 players and 4 SB's in the pot. a bet may or may not be right here (no opinion on the matter, close decision), but your reasoning/figures for the bet is, at minimum, partially incorrect. respectfully, temp
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#18
06-10-2005, 03:53 AM
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Re: BD flush makes, doesn\'t feel good
[ QUOTE ]
You can 3-bet this river if you can safely fold to a cap, which you probably can. I can't think of many players who will cap here with the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I think 95% of the time you'll 3-bet this and just get called, which is what you want. You'll so rarely get capped (because he so rarely has a boat), that this is a standard 3-bet. But fold to a cap. [/ QUOTE ] joker, by extension, you'd be willing to to risk two bets to win one more bet when you reraise, but are unwilling to risk one bet to win (5.5 BBs + 7 BBs =) 12.5 BBs when villain caps? i'd be pretty tentative to fold an ace high flush at 12.5-1 with one pair on board, even for a cap. i dont think you can be ~93%(?) sure of anything ppl would do at these stakes. respectfully, temp
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#19
06-10-2005, 03:58 AM
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Re: BD flush makes, doesn\'t feel good
Like Joker said, a K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (and maybe a Q) will often raise you here, and likewise will call a 3-bet. However, if you are capped, you now have additional information that suggests that villain really doesn't care that you have the nut flush.
Given that we do have a player read that villain is somewhat reasonable, this would make it ok. In some situations, a player may be a bit overaggressive, putting in an extra bet or two with a good hand that probably is being overplayed. Even reasonable players do this, so if it were this type of play, calling would be fine. However, no reasonable person is going to cap a paired, 4-flushed river with the 2nd nut flush unless they are against a total donk. Given this, calling on the end, even in a big pot, is a losing proposition.
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#20
06-10-2005, 04:00 AM
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Re: BD flush makes, doesn\'t feel good
Even if he was sure that he was beat 100% of the time it was capped and he was compelled to call anyway, he should 3-bet.
I think I would call a cap. I don't make folds this big and he only has to be out of line 7.5% of the time to justify a call.
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