Who bets this turn?

[brettbrettr]

I'd probably take the card. I think this one is going to showdown.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably take the card. I think this one is going to showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you wanna see a showdown here UI, it's even more important to bet the turn.

[poker-penguin]

I'd bet this turn, neither MP seems happy with his hand.

My read is they are most likely check calling or check folding with overcards, possibly a slowplayed set that now fears a flush.

I don't see JJ or AJ as a huge threat - your flop bet would smell like a position bet to anyone with a bit of sophistication so they would probably bet into you.

Made flush is only really possible if they play suited kings or connectors that aggressively pre flop.

You have a shot at winning UI, 8 outs to the flush IMO probably at least 2 (since K hearts is a flush out) if not 5 overcard outs.

I'd bet this, call a check raise, and maybe even bet/call if I miss the river (although that's the part I am least sure about).

[eleventy]

I'd bet alot of hands(small PP) fold and you suckout enough that it is probably ok.

[shant]

I'm betting this turn to fold out AQo or AKo and take the free showdown and also because if I'm checkraised I'm not gonna be that [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] about it.

[WillyTrailer]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I tend to bet here... you've got a likely 7 outs to improve to the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

7? Well, you've got at least 8 outs to the nuts. But do you really think you're going to win the pot on the turn or are you value betting? I'm guessing there's an overpair or at least top pair out there some where that's not folding and that you're not beating. I realize that you're risking one bet here for a chance to win two from any opponent who calls as you're not betting or calling the river unimproved and you're hoping that they call your river bet when you do improve. But you're also opening up to being check raised when you can take a free card and possibly raise the river if you improve and get bet into.

-WT

[S_Perry]

I bet. I want MP2 to fold a lot of hands that get me HU to showdown with MP3, and a hand like black TT or 88 might be willing to release here.

[gvibes]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing there's an overpair or at least top pair out there some where that's not folding and that you're not beating.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see no evidence that hero is beat here.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I tend to bet here... you've got a likely 7 outs to improve to the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

7? Well, you've got at least 8 outs to the nuts. But do you really think you're going to win the pot on the turn or are you value betting? I'm guessing there's an overpair or at least top pair out there some where that's not folding and that you're not beating. I realize that you're risking one bet here for a chance to win two from any opponent who calls as you're not betting or calling the river unimproved and you're hoping that they call your river bet when you do improve. But you're also opening up to being check raised when you can take a free card and possibly raise the river if you improve and get bet into.

-WT

[/ QUOTE ]

You misqoted what I said. I said "If you get check-raised, you probably have 7 outs to a winner". I'm assuming that when you get check-raised here the villian has a flush or JJ the vast majority of the time. 7 is a good estimate of your outs.

Read my other posts to address your other questions.

[ckessel]

To bluff you just need more +EV than checking through and winning if you flush.

.19 is the odds of making the flush
+EV of checking through 8BB * .19 = 1.52

So, if we won our bluff 19% of the time, we're as good as checking. Except, a failed bluff costs us 1BB if we don't catch the river flush and the bluff fails. But, if the flush fails and we catch the river then we've got another BB in the pot (maybe 2 if both call). So accounting for that we have:
X = Bluff percentage
.81 = chance of missing the flush
((1-X) * .81) = the BB lost if your bluff fails and you miss the river flush
((1-x) * .19) = the BB gained off one caller if your bluff fails and you make the river flush

8X - ((1-X) * .81) + ((1-x) * .19) = 1.52
8X - (.81 - .81X) + (.19 - .19X) = 1.52
8X - .81 + .81X +.19 - .19X = 1.52
8.62X = 2.14
X = .248

I'm arbitrarily dismissing the cost of being check/raised as equal to the implied odds by people calling your nut flush.

So, the bluff needs to work 25% of the time to be more profitable than checking behind. Is that going to happen? Hmm, feels right at the edge to me, and people tell me over and over if close then favor betting [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]