The blue moon must be here, I fold TPTK to one bet on the flop... - Page 2

Jdanz · #11 06-03-2005, 02:29 PM

btw i think those advocating call and wait for the turn are WAY off, now you let many people in to draw correctly, when you can shut them out right here, and the pot will get bigger if someone bets behind and you might not have the oppertunity to face people with 2 on the turn.

I think it goes raise/fold/wait for the turn

PS i really really don't like the wait for the turn line

DMBFan23 · #12 06-03-2005, 02:31 PM

I think it is a very good fold. if you play on then I really think you need to raise.

aslowjoe · #13 06-03-2005, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
actually think a case can be made for calling and waiting for the turn here. No one is folding overs with a big to a raise, but most will fold overs to the one bet if they dont have a spade so I dont think the flop bet does much to increase your equity. Your equity is likly to change dramatically on the turn, and you can decide then if a raise or fold is best.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I first looked at this hand my initial thought was to raise the flop. But after reading the above response I think this is a better line. As long as you don't get raised behind you are getting at least 6-1 on your call. Just as I finished my response I am having doubts about this too.I think this is a case where all three actions are not much different in EV. Maybe somebody could do the math.

sethypooh21 · #14 06-03-2005, 05:21 PM

Wow, I'm surpirsed that their all three options have been argued so frocefully. My reasons for folding.

1. Out of position against a poster, a lag and two LP chuckleheads who could have anything.

2. At leas 2/3rds of the time I'm paying 2 bets to see the turn (and probably 40% of the time I raise, I would imagine)

3. My hand might be best now, but there are only four cards I can play with any confidence on the turn (other 2 8's and the non [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A's).

4. Related to 2., but I fear getting squeezed by SB and LAG boy.

FWIW the rest of the actual hand:

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $2.
UTG (poster) checks, MP calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, Hero folds, UTG folds, MP calls, Button folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, MP checks.

River: (3.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, MP checks.

Final Pot: 3.50 BB

Results in white below: 
SB has Js 6h (flush, jack high).
MP has Td Ac (high card, ace).
Outcome: SB wins 3.50 BB. 

Even in this "best possible scenarion" (two opponents, 'best hand at the moment') Calling is barely +ev:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=998479
pokenum -h ah 8c - ad tc - js 6d -- 4s 6s 8s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8s 6s 4s
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ah 353 39.09 540 59.80 10 1.11 0.395
Tc Ad 60 6.64 833 92.25 10 1.11 0.070
Js 6d 480 53.16 413 45.74 10 1.11 0.535

and while raising helps (assuming lag-boy folds and doesnt 3-bet me for the heck of it):

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=998481
pokenum -h ah 8c - - js 6d -- 4s 6s 8s / ac td
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8s 6s 4s
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ah 413 45.74 480 53.16 10 1.11 0.463
Js 6d 480 53.16 413 45.74 10 1.11 0.537

Not sure this pot justifies the extra flop bet.