Awful Roy Cooke article - what am I missing?

[AceHigh]

Rick,

"I’m sure Roy would plan to get away from the hand if he flopped a lone ace and faced heat."

But isn't this going to be harder to do based on his poor position? Of course we don't know where the raiser's are located and maybe his position is good in relation to them, but it seems like the combination of poor/dominated cards and poor position are going to make it hard to play well. Can he get away from this hand if he flops a lone ace and a 3-flush draw?

"Run your simulation with the A6 suited, the dominating ace, the pair of jacks, and four random hands."

The results are you win 10.88% of the time vs. AhKd and JsJd and 4 totally random hands and split about .631% of the time. Note these random hands are totally random. Your fair share is ~14.3% with 7 players in the hand.

I just think this hand is going to be very hard to play well unless you flop a flush draw and that will only happen about 11% of the time. With 2 raisers in the hand I would be worried that good flops like 1 pair and 3 flush will cost me a lot of money because I could get whipsawed between the two of them.

"they contribute to it when he makes flushes"

True, but they also eat away at your wins about 3% of time when they make a straight or flush or better, to beat your 2 pair or trips. And that is giving these players just any old hand, their hands could be much more reasonable (suited connectors, pairs, etc.). And your flushes won't be 6.5% of the time but more like 4% of the time if you have to flop a 4 flush or a pair and 3 flush to continue.

"Let’s agree that it is a close decision (relative to the size of the bet)."

So I don't think it close, I would fold.

One last thing, the cap in Vegas is 5 bets so it might cost you $120 more to see the flop.

Comments?

Acehigh

[Rick Nebiolo]

AceHigh,

I'm on my way out the door so I have to be brief.

If Roy knew he would likely be paying three bets his initial limp was awful (and would be awful in the default 30/60 or 40/80 game in Los Angeles where aggressive play is the norm).

But once he made the initial call, he is getting about 10 to 1 on calling two more bets (which he seemed to indicate would be all he would likely have to call). His hand is good enough on nut flushes alone in this case with implied odds.

In any event, I don't advocate open limping with this hand in most games 20/40 and above. But that wasn't what the initial post was about - it was about Roy's comments on expectation when he had to call two more bets.

Regards,

Rick

[rockoon]

How have you determined that 10:1 is enough to draw to a flush preflop? The chance of making a flush at this point is about 25:1 against. He's got to get another 15 bets into the pot without himself putting -any- bets in, before he can even break even using flushes. And thats assuming he wins 100% of the time that he makes one.

So where the heck is it written that 10:1 is enough?

As for implied odds, they are considerably reduced due to spending so much to see the flop. Ignoring the chance that it might get capped is probably a big mistake in and of itself. How *SURE* can you be that it wont get capped? Even if it only gets capped as little as 10% of the time this radically affects the odds.

I have always thought that roy cookes articles were voodoo "after the fact" scribblings. I dont even bother to read him.

[Rick Nebiolo]

rockoon,

I was hoping that the thread would return to a discussion on Roy’s way of looking at expectation. Please feel free to post on this if you have time. Meanwhile

You wrote: ”How have you determined that 10:1 is enough to draw to a flush preflop? The chance of making a flush at this point is about 25:1 against.”

He flops a flush or flush draw 11.9% of the time. He is only 1.86 to 1 against making it when he flops a draw. He has the nut flush. And in reality, ace small does have additional value as long as you play well post flop.

”He's got to get another 15 bets into the pot without himself putting -any- bets in, before he can even break even using flushes. And thats assuming he wins 100% of the time that he makes one.”

He will win almost 100% of his flushes when the board doesn’t pair. And with six opponents in a big pot, he will rarely not make the extra bets.

”So where the heck is it written that 10:1 is enough?”

Is this an appeal to authority? How about an appeal to the forum? Try posting the following:

”I’m in the big blind with Ah-6h in what has been a loose/passive medium limit game. A tight UTG player raises. A solid player acting next reraises. Three players behind cold call three bets as well as the small blind. Looking left, I can see that the UTG player is only going to call the reraise. Assuming flopping an ace means I’m outkicked, is the fact I’m suited to the ace make it worth calling two more bets pre flop?

”As for implied odds, they are considerably reduced due to spending so much to see the flop. Ignoring the chance that it might get capped is probably a big mistake in and of itself. How *SURE* can you be that it wont get capped? Even if it only gets capped as little as 10% of the time this radically affects the odds.”

Roy didn’t go into detail but he made it appear that all he had to call were two bets.

”I have always thought that roy cookes articles were voodoo "after the fact" scribblings. I dont even bother to read him.”

If you don’t read them how do you know they are voodoo? I and some others think he made a mistake in this one regarding the way he approached the problem and his view on expectation. Check it out and tell me what you think.

Regards,

Rick

[Clarkmeister]

Rick,

I too had hoped that this would be a discussion of Roy's way of looking at EV, since it seems so incorrect. But FWIW I think calling 2 more with any suited ace is a very easy call. When I play in Southern California in the 9-18 games, I frequently cold call 2 bets preflop with ragged suited aces expecting 7 way action, and I have no doubt that it has been a +EV play for me. Calling 2 more after limping is even easier.

Don't forget that not only are you getting an immediate overlay on flopping a flush draw, your hand has other ways of winning also. Most importantly, but not exclusively your implied odds for reversing the domination on the flop are huge, and this also will happen more than 10% of the time.

Anyways, I was hoping to get some more theoretical EV discussion going, but thats my $.02 on the actual hand he discussed.

[AceHigh]

"But FWIW I think calling 2 more with any suited ace is a very easy call."

I think this depends on the quality of hands that the raisers are likely to have. If the raisers typically have any 2 big suited cards, you don't lose that much, if you have the biggest Ace, you probably gain EV. Against passive players raising hands like AK/AQ and AA-TT I think it's EV is hurt a lot.

[Clarkmeister]

Of course it matters on what they raise with. But there ain't many people playing mid limits who only raise with AA. And AK isn't really a huge concern. I think you are worrying overmuch about being dominated in this spot. Again, you are getting an overlay flopping your flush draw alone, and you will also reverse the domination something like 14% of the time.

I also suspect that part of why Rick and I think this call is so easy is experience in loose aggressive cali style games. Situations like this are more the norm than the exception where Rick plays. In these games if you only played suited aces, pairs, AK and AQ, and played them at any price against 5 or more players you would be playing pretty close to correct. I suspect you are making the common 2+2 mistake of overestimating your opponents and their hands in these situations.

[AceHigh]

"I suspect you are making the common 2+2 mistake of overestimating your opponents and their hands in these situations. "

But I thought Roy said in his article that the game was loose/passive, and he was expecting a multiway pot with no raises. Maybe, my memory is failing me. You've probably read the article more recently than me. This game was in Vegas not LA, correct?

Are you saying Axs is profitable in ep, against 4 limpers and AK and JJ?

BTW, I suspect your not getting any responses on how Roy calculates EV, because no one else here calculates it like Roy does. At least, I hope they don't.

[Clarkmeister]

I honestly don't remember how Roy characterized the game. I think my point was poorly worded. I merely meant that Rick and myself are likely coming from a different perspective because pots like this are the rule rather than the exception in a lot of Cali and weekend/holiday Vegas games. But I don't want to put words in Ricks mouth.

The profitability of Axs against specifically AK and JJ depends dramatically on how they and the other 4 opponents play postflop. Assuming the 2 players with the "real" hands play well and the other 4 are fishes, I think that it is profitable.

[rockoon]

Rick Nebiolo, you are totally wrong about how to calculate pot odds in this situation. You cant justify a draw to pick up a draw by considering the chance of picking up the draw alone.

Please do this quick and dirty calculation in your head:

1/10 * 1/3 =

0.03

This estimate is low by 1%, he will make a flush a whole 4% of the time.

25 bets need to end up in the pot. And he needs to pay no more while its getting that big, before he can even *begin* to consider drawing to pick up a draw.

And your simple qualification "He will win almost 100% of his flushes when the board doesn’t pair. "

Yeah... do you know how often a pair ends up on board? I guess you are going to be very suprised.

And then you say "And with six opponents in a big pot, he will rarely not make the extra bets."

Is that before or after hes made a flush? Hes sucking wind on that turn card if he doesnt have a flush yet. He could get roped in for a cap at this point shattering any hope of ever making a long term profit on such a ghastly preflop error.

Seriously.. its just ghastly playing ONLY to make a flush.. you will have to design a pretty extreme preflop scenario to make it correct. And this isnt even close. Its not even in the same ballpark.