Who value bets this river?

[krishanleong]

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At 11-1 I think you snap off enough bluffs to be profitable.

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given the size of the pot i don't think anyone is raising to make someone fold. they are raising for value.

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I gave two scenerios where I think this happens 1/10 times. You don't have to agree.

Krishan

[Wynton]

It really is hard for me to imagine either opponent check/raising the river here without beating your trips.

[Grisgra]

I don't think I've *ever* been checkraised on a 4-straight board like this with two pair, ever, much less by a loose passive. And there's the flush possibility out there as well.

Saying that such a play is a bluff 1/10 times seems super-generous. Maybe at an all-TAG tricky table, but that's about it.

[krishanleong]

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Saying that such a play is a bluff 1/10 times seems super-generous. Maybe at an all-TAG tricky table, but that's about it.

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It's not always a bluff. Sometimes is a value check raise by a hand you beat. The passivity of the table makes a difference. I don't mind a fold. I think a call is in order sometimes.

This is a really river to try for a check raise on. A flush shouldn't because everyone will be scared of the straight. A straight shouldn't because a flush will 3-bet + it will get checked through a lot.

I really don't like a river check.

Krishan

[SomethingClever]

Isn't it also important to consider what hands will call if you bet? It's not "for value" if worse hands won't call.

I can't think of a lot... that board is as scary as it gets... for your opponents, too.

[joker122]

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Both villains are loose passive.

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bet/fold seems pretty obvious to me.

[Grisgra]

I agree that a straight almost definitely bets this, and a flush *probably* does, so that we don't have a ton to fear from a river checkraise. It may be a thin value-bet. I'm just saying that I don't think we have 10-1 to call a river checkraise, should it appear, as it's almost definitely a flush.

[krishanleong]

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It may be a thin value-bet. I'm just saying that I don't think we have 10-1 to call a river checkraise, should it appear, as it's almost definitely a flush.

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Say someone bets a straight here 90% of the time, a flush bets here 90% of the time. It's really tough to get a feel for what a cr means since we are dealing with the 20% of the time noone bet. That means we only have to be good 2% of the time. This isn't making much sense.

What I'm saying is when an opponent does something unexpected, the kinds of hands he can have isn't as predictable as when he does something expected (like leading the river).

Krishan

[obsidian]

Well, I ended up checking behind. I have been making thinner and thinner value bets and it has been profitable, but this was one I had a hard time with. My thinking was since I had shown so much aggression, and my table image was very aggressive, my opponents would c/r as oppose to lead. I also don't think there are too many hands that they would call with that I beat. I think even 1 pair hands will fold on this board.

Anyways, one shows Q8o and the other shows K7o and MHIG.

[krishanleong]

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Anyways, one shows Q8o

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I wish you had bet, then we would have seen if Q8 would check raise.

Krishan