QQ faces AKx flop

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I not see a turn getting 8:1 + implied odds for my two backdoor draws and two Q outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

How much implied odds do you think you're getting here?

Suppose you make 6 BB profit on the turn and river when you hit your set. In this case, that's getting villain to put in 3 bets on the turn and river.

So 1/23 of the time, you win the pot (4 BB) and another 6 BB.
The other 22/23 of the time, you lose .5 BB on your call.

EV = 1/23 * 10 BB - 22/23 * .5 BB = -1/23 BB

Now ask yourself how likely it really is to even get 6 BB out of villain (and even if both players call the flop bet). If you want to believe your backdoor draws have any good implied odds, you can include their value in the extreme over-estimate of getting 6 BB back on the turn and river. This pot is small and you've got nowhere near the implied odds to make money chasing.

You seem to have a gap in understanding somewhere, and I think it's that you haven't sat down with numbers enough (or thought through enough situations) to have any real intuition about pot size and implied odds.

[Jakesta]

You're wicked smaht!

I agree with your post 100%. I liked seeing the mathematical explanation which I could not provide in my above recommendation to fold the flop.

[The Victim]

When you raise QQ before the flop, you are looking to remove competition, 'qualify' your opponents hands, and get more money into a pot you have a good chance to win. Preflop is when you can get the most value from your QQ. You're basically betting that you either see another Q on the flop, or A or K does not fall. You're a bit better than 1:2.08 not to see an A or K fall on the flop (or at least the ace, callers on 3 bets before the flop probably qualified an ace). You're about 1:8 to see another Q. You're the most likely one to win the pot before the flop, that's why you have to get the money into the pot before the flop, and pretty much why if you see AKx on the flop it is time to stick a fork in you, you're done. The king is debateable, but that ace pretty much dooms you to 2 outs. Don't think clubs are going to save you, because since someone is likely to have an ace or a king (or worse) if they called 3 bets before the flop. The likelihood your flush would be the best is much lower, giving you piss-poor implied odds on trying to catch the flush. You still have 2 outs. GAME OVER. INSERT COIN.

[pryor15]

are we discounting the possibility that UTG+1 is betting the flush draw? maybe something like JcTc?

[iNsChris]

Looks fine, You need good reads to go with these hands.

See - http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...14&fpart=1

[JKDStudent]

How's this sound:

Flop: Raise, fold to 3-bet.
Turn: Fold to bet, bet if checked to.
River: If Jack or Queen comes, bet/raise. If he bets, fold. If he checks, take the free showdown.

Since he's new, there are a lot of cards he could be holding. Granted, there's a good chance he has the A or K, but if you're not folding to this flop bet, raise it. You have position and can take control of the hand.

That's not to say that folding the flop isn't a good option here, but calling has got to be the worst of the three.

[Maurader1]

During the hand I have to admit I didn't do all this thinking. But thinking about it right now, I figure that my immediate odds for the .5BB call is 8:1, and assuming I can get 1BB on the turn and river, then my implied odds is 12:1 for the .5BB call. If I discount the bdfd to 1 out, and a bdsd to 1 out, then I have 4 outs, requiring only 10.5:1 to call (I'm cheating reading off odds chart)

Having said that, my analysis is probably wrong, and would appreciate it if you could help me understand why.

Thanks!

[Maurader1]

Unfortunately with no read, I can't put him on a range of hands. But I'm thinking now that if I were Villain, I might have limped with 77-TT, called a raise, and then saw the board AKx, and bet out on the flop, intending to fold to a raise. Since I was only called on the flop, I bet again on the turn.

I guess this shows me how I should have raised the flop if I were planning to continue.

[Jakesta]

I really think that this is an auto-muck against 90% of players, Marauder.

Too often you are drawing to two outs. Any Ace or King beats you, and you know how often low limit players love to play Ace -rag and King-rag.

It's not weak-tight thinking; it's being sensible.

Jakesta

[Ringo_Mojo]

Normally i think the flop is a raise/fold situation depending on the read on Villian. But without a read I think i would have played it the same, called with the intention of folding unimproved.