Hand from the Orleans

[oxymoron]

Oops I thought hero had 55k in chips. I think pushing or folding is best. I would push.

[valenzuela]

oh irie, whats the buy-in? just curious.

[microbet]

As far as image goes, it could be good to preserve a tight image, but there is value in an aggressive image too. People will fold to your BB and will be afraid to make small raises at you. You will be more likely to be paid off when you have a big hand and more likely to see cheap cards when you don't.

Whether it is more +$EV to preserve you image here depends on how aggressive the rest of the table is and if they are letting you be the first one in the pot in late position.

[Matt R.]

I really hate pushing the big stack out of this hand. He may have the short stack beat here (and Irie clearly doesn't), and by taking him out of the hand here the result is going to be tripling up the short stack a majority of the time. I'm changing my vote to call (temporarily; I might have to change it again) and see a flop. It will greatly increase the chance of busting the short stack, and maybe big stack will be nice enough to check it down even if you don't like the flop. Given Irie's read of him, this possibility doesn't seem too far-fetched -- that he'll check it down even with a decent hand. I'm interested to hear what others think.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Payouts:
1st: $5k
2nd: $3K
3rd: $1,800
4th: $1,400
5th: $1,200
6th: $950
7th: $750
8th: $650


[/ QUOTE ]

[SlackerMcFly]

I'd be interested to know how/when she got short-stacked. If she had folded the last five hands, most likely her all-in here indicates strength to me. If she just lost most of her chips the last hand or so, then she holds any two.

Pot odds are great here, but either one of them has you dominated 61.5% of the time (but I'm not good at math). I fold and let her double up through UTG+1 with her AKc, then rake off her BB next hand to even up.

Either that, or tell her you will fold if she gives you a lap-dance right then and there. Given the number of Heinekens consumed it wouldn't matter to you at that point if she were Phyllis Diller....... Cheaper than Jaguars.

Slacker - Who lives in a pineapple under the sea.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

UTG goes all-in for her last 7000 and UTG+1 calls. UTG+1 is trying to be loose-aggressive with his stack, but he's easy to control and easy to read. He calls and it's clear that he doesn't want to put any more chips into this pot preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given this read, I most likely push right here. As somebody else pointed out, if the big stack is playing somewhat tentatively, it doesn't seem like we're necessarily that likely to extract high value from him if we make a hand postflop. UTG is probably pushing with anything better than average. I think hero is likely to be a 60-40 dog to this range, which is good enough to make this worthwhile since Hero is really only paying 4000 to win 18.5, assuming UTG+1 will fold.

The major concern with this play, to my mind, is that it looks horrendous to have to show down 76s here after this move. It really puts a dent in your credibility that might make it hard to run over the table afterwards. I would need to think about how I was likely to be perceived by my opponents afterward. If this makes it harder for me to steal with crap later, then the gain might not be worth it. But it looks like a pretty high +EV spot to push.

[schilling38]

given your read on UTG+1, I think he'll shy away from confronting with you unless he has AA or KK.

I say push.

[valenzuela]

with those stacks no way Big stack folds QQ or AK. He will prolly call with soemthing like 77 .

[Matt R.]

I'm going back to saying push! Who cares if you triple up the short stack? It's not like you're close to busting out and the pay difference between 7th and 8th is really small. You have a lot of equity versus the SS's pushing range, and you pretty much know big stack will fold. Even though you're probably behind (ok definitely), I think this is too good of a chance to accumulate chips and shoot for first. It's a clear push [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]