Taking Marginal -EV Spots to Set Up a Profitable Image - Page 2

drexah · #11 05-26-2005, 05:12 PM

wait, is this a joke? i mean ok, how hard can it be to set up a profitable image? just make a dumb ass call where you have basically 0.5% of winning. why are you talking about pot odds, and even if he can't make this play with a "big hand" what the hell do you have? you have 4 high... ok, so even if you put him on a flush draw (the worst he can have is like 5c6c) 34o vs 8cTc is 14% to win after the flop. If you are going to 'set up an image' im sure you can find a way to do it so you maybe have a little more of a chance to suck out or outdraw someone after making a really dumb flop call.

gomberg · #12 05-26-2005, 05:14 PM

I don't really like it - this seems very -ev for me, not marginally -ev unless he's on a pure bluff. If he has a flush draw, you are at least 4:1 against. If strt draw, also 4:1 against. flush + gut = 5.5:1 against. Even a pure bluff is 2:1 against around. So you're taking 1.5:1 odds with at best a 2:1 shot? Most likely you are way worse than that as well.

did it work? Did people start value betting the hell out of you? Interested to hear how the session panned out -

ni han [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

ZeeJustin · #13 05-26-2005, 05:14 PM

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Maybe some people would start putting you in with middle pair but smart players wouldn't just because they know they can wait for much better spots.

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Huh? I hope you're not serious. This isn't tournament poker. You can rebuy. There's no reason to ever pass up a +ev spot. If you are playing anywhere near the 5/10 level, this should be blatantly obvious to you. These players aren't idiots. They won't just sit back and wait expecting my money to fall into their laps. They're going to try to play what they believe is optimal poker against me, and given that I call with "4 high", they're going to be making marginal value bets against me before the other players do.

Yeti · #14 05-26-2005, 05:18 PM

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Maybe some people would start putting you in with middle pair but smart players wouldn't just because they know they can wait for much better spots.

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Huh? I hope you're not serious. This isn't tournament poker. You can rebuy. There's no reason to ever pass up a +ev spot. If you are playing anywhere near the 5/10 level, this should be blatantly obvious to you. These players aren't idiots. They won't just sit back and wait expecting my money to fall into their laps. They're going to try to play what they believe is optimal poker against me, and given that I call with "4 high", they're going to be making marginal value bets against me before the other players do.

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Um, you realise you're playing on Party Poker, yes?

You're trying to defend this hand as if it's a 50-100 hand with huge metagame considerations against a player who will actually remember your screen name.

Popinjay · #15 05-26-2005, 05:18 PM

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Maybe some people would start putting you in with middle pair but smart players wouldn't just because they know they can wait for much better spots.

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Huh? I hope you're not serious. This isn't tournament poker. You can rebuy. There's no reason to ever pass up a +ev spot. If you are playing anywhere near the 5/10 level, this should be blatantly obvious to you. These players aren't idiots. They won't just sit back and wait expecting my money to fall into their laps. They're going to try to play what they believe is optimal poker against me, and given that I call with "4 high", they're going to be making marginal value bets against me before the other players do.

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There's a good story in Doyle's Poker Wisdom from a Champion book about this. I'll try to recollect as best I can from memory. He's playing stud and there is a complete idiot in the game. He somehow sees the guy's cards and knows he is a 55-45 favorite and gets it all-in. The guy draws on him and busts him. The point is that there was no point in putting all your cash in in that spot when you could just wait and have him all-in drawing dead.

ZeeJustin · #16 05-26-2005, 05:19 PM

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why are you talking about pot odds

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Why would I ignore them? They are very relevant. The size of the pot is one of the most crucial factors in poker when making any decision. Surely you understand this basic concept.

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If you are going to 'set up an image' im sure you can find a way to do it so you maybe have a little more of a chance to suck out or outdraw someone after making a really dumb flop call.

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I think you vastly underestimate how much EV I will gain from the players at the table adjusting to their new read on me.

turnipmonster · #17 05-26-2005, 05:23 PM

I think a lot about this stuff, especially when playing live against the same players all the time. however, it seems to me to be a little misguided to think that someone's image of you is changed with the outcome of one hand. it's easy to think you misclicked here, so you can't just fold for the next hour and then expect people to start calling you down with ace high and value betting bottom pair against you.

in a lot of ways, an image is built, not created outright. if this hand is part of an overall image you are representing, great, but it's a mistake to think good players will place too much weight on an isolated event. we've all been burned by that rather dangerous assumption.

if you played this hand this way against me I would assume you misclicked.

--turnipmonster

ZeeJustin · #18 05-26-2005, 05:23 PM

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Maybe some people would start putting you in with middle pair but smart players wouldn't just because they know they can wait for much better spots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I hope you're not serious. This isn't tournament poker. You can rebuy. There's no reason to ever pass up a +ev spot. If you are playing anywhere near the 5/10 level, this should be blatantly obvious to you. These players aren't idiots. They won't just sit back and wait expecting my money to fall into their laps. They're going to try to play what they believe is optimal poker against me, and given that I call with "4 high", they're going to be making marginal value bets against me before the other players do.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a good story in Doyle's Poker Wisdom from a Champion book about this. I'll try to recollect as best I can from memory. He's playing stud and there is a complete idiot in the game. He somehow sees the guy's cards and knows he is a 55-45 favorite and gets it all-in. The guy draws on him and busts him. The point is that there was no point in putting all your cash in in that spot when you could just wait and have him all-in drawing dead.

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Doyle Brunson, while he may be a world class poker player, is a horrible writer. He also wrote in the same book about how AKo is the best hand, and how it's even more profitable than Aces.

Doyle's point here is flawed. First this is not a heads up scenario. The players will try to bust me before someone else does. They know I won't be around forever, and they havea limited time to take my cash.

So Doyle must be assuming his opponent will stick around forever, or at least until he goes bust. If this is the case, if you never pass up a +ev scenario, you are gaurenteed to bust the opponent, so there really is no point in waiting for a sure thing since you already have one.

ZeeJustin · #19 05-26-2005, 05:25 PM

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I think a lot about this stuff, especially when playing live against the same players all the time. however, it seems to me to be a little misguided to think that someone's image of you is changed with the outcome of one hand. it's easy to think you misclicked here, so you can't just fold for the next hour and then expect people to start calling you down with ace high and value betting bottom pair against you.

in a lot of ways, an image is built, not created outright. if this hand is part of an overall image you are representing, great, but it's a mistake to think good players will place too much weight on an isolated event. we've all been burned by that rather dangerous assumption.

if you played this hand this way against me I would assume you misclicked.

--turnipmonster

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The misclick point is valid, but when the hand actually played out, I thought for a long time before calling.

You definatrely bring up a good point. I agree with your sentiment. I should have said something like, "I know you're bluffing" before I called so that there would be no way to think I misclicked.

Popinjay · #20 05-26-2005, 05:26 PM

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in a lot of ways, an image is built, not created outright. if this hand is part of an overall image you are representing, great, but it's a mistake to think good players will place too much weight on an isolated event. we've all been burned by that rather dangerous assumption.

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great point