Fold set of Qs? - Page 2

crazygoose · #11 05-24-2005, 07:35 PM

Reraising the flop would save you a lot of trouble. Besides you're probably so far ahead of most of the hands that the initial raiser is raising with you might as well make him pay to see the flop with a losing hand. But you just called and called the limp reraise. Maybe the limp reraiser had a read on UTG+1 that he raises a lot with marginal hands. Then I would be scared. But I am thinking UTG+1 knows the initial raiser raises a lot and limp reraised with something like TT or something (a hand he would normally just call with) (maybe I'm way off). The flop check either means a monster or bottom pair in the hole. I would bet here without thinking twice. Giving the initial raiser a chance to hit a flush or straight draw is just not a smart move (or the limp reraiser for that matter). At the turn you HAVE to raise and see where you are.

crazygoose · #12 05-24-2005, 07:38 PM

Also, given the draw heavy board and the size of the pot already there's no way the limp reraiser is checking top or second set to give free draws. NO WAY.

Macquarie · #13 05-24-2005, 07:54 PM

I'm not sure about this. I put him on AK, AQ, KK or AA (anyone put him on a wider spread?) That means he has two pair or a set.

He should bet all of these to charge the draws. The free card is just as dangerous for two pair as it is to the set, and so I don't agree that the check gives you information like this. More likely he just slowplays too much. He _must_ have hit this board, so isn't it almost certain he is slowplaying?

He's going all the way with this hand whether he has AA or AK. He will check-raise with AK just as likely as he will check-raise with AA. Am i committed to going all the way if I bet the flop?

Macquarie · #14 05-24-2005, 07:57 PM

He might limp-reraise heads up against the loose player, but with me cold calling as well (I play 15%/5%) I'm not sure he would LRR TT..

crazygoose · #15 05-24-2005, 08:02 PM

Some good points here. If he is only limpreraising AK, AQ, KK, or AA then there is a better chance he has AK or AQ then AA or KK so why did you fold?

Godfather80 · #16 05-24-2005, 08:13 PM

I would have raised MP1 preflop and raised him a significant ammount because of the limp from UTG+1. I think Harrington calls it the squeeze play and it would have given you plenty of info on UTG+1 as he would certainly need a very powerful hand to call your reraise with a live (albeit loose) original raiser behind him and you. Given your play preflop, I'm not sure how I would have played the flop other than to make a significant bet and then fold if raised.

Given how you played it preflop and on the flop, I think the turn fold is okay because of how little you really know about what UTG+1 holds.

That said, I am always looking to simplify my decisions post flop by showing aggression preflop. I'm sure others who play more subtly could advise a better line for you given your passivity preflop and on the flop.

Macquarie · #17 05-24-2005, 08:17 PM

Well, I figured that he had AA or KK significantly more than half the time. Perhaps that idea was wrong.

FreakDaddy · #18 05-24-2005, 08:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I should have reraised preflop. That was the first bad decision.

After the reraise, I figured i probably had odds to look for the set. I put the reraiser on AA or KK and so reckoned I'd get paid off.

I agree that checking the flop gets me no more information. Does betting out really get you more information though? I could see a check-raise from AK, and I could alos see a flat call from AA or KK hoping to bring along the loose player and then getting in on the turn.

How much would you bet the flop, and if flat called by one or both, would you get all in on the turn? Call a turn bet?

thanks for the thoughts,

[/ QUOTE ]

A flop bet accomplishes the following things
1) You may, even though it's a long shot - win the pot. Ok, so I'm optimistic. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] It still is a small probability though.
2) If someone goes all-in, you can drop the hand. Would AKs go all-in, yes. Would AK also check-raise, yes. Not betting though gets you no feel for how the flop hit your opponents. Because you didn't re-raise pre-flop a check/all-in on the flop, even though you may be ahead, is still a reasonable drop.
3) May buy you a free showdown. Slim possibility also, but it is a possibility.

To answer your question, I'd bet a minumum of 2/3 pot on the flop. If I was flat called I wouldn't push on the turn. That sounds even more sirens and I'd hope that it would just get checked through.

crazygoose · #19 05-24-2005, 08:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure about this. I put him on AK, AQ, KK or AA (anyone put him on a wider spread?) That means he has two pair or a set.

He should bet all of these to charge the draws. The free card is just as dangerous for two pair as it is to the set, and so I don't agree that the check gives you information like this. More likely he just slowplays too much. He _must_ have hit this board, so isn't it almost certain he is slowplaying?

He's going all the way with this hand whether he has AA or AK. He will check-raise with AK just as likely as he will check-raise with AA. Am i committed to going all the way if I bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

6 combos of AA, 6 combos of KK vs. 16 combos of AK (that alone should be enough) and 8 combos of AQ

Macquarie · #20 05-24-2005, 09:46 PM

Sure there are more ways to have AK, but I still put him on AA/KK more than half the time