Rag War II (for Chesspain)

[Nick C]

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If he wasn't, I think I'd prefer just to lead the flop.

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I used to bet/fold flops like this, but just like Ishmael, I found that you pretty much always draw an auto-bet. So now my line is to check/raise any piece. Quite often the c/r or the follow-up turn bet takes it down. The alternative is to bluff lots of these flops, but that often gets be in trouble and doesn't really exploit most of my opponent's habbit of calling too darn much. Sound reasoning?

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Yeah, it sounds reasonable to me. I'm certainly no expert in these situations, though, so I don't really know.

I tend to lead any piece, including gutshots and unimproved ace-rag (whether I raised with it preflop or not), depending on the board.

(Also, if my opponent is aggressive, I hesitate to fold to the raise, with a hand as good as middle or sometimes even bottom pair. It depends on the board and my opponent, though, and, to be honest, half the time I'm not really sure what I'm doing. But a pair is a pretty good hand, heads-up.)

Occasionally I'll just make a pure bluff, too, but I don't do so all that often.

In any event, your approach could get more value out of your made hands.

[Fnord]

*bump*

[CallMeIshmael]

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*bump*

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[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Fnord]

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I am going to bed now, but I will repost again tomrrow (if I forget, bump it/PM me because I want to read it again)

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Well, punk?

[MisterKing]

Calling a river raise, right?

[CallMeIshmael]

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I am going to bed now, but I will repost again tomrrow (if I forget, bump it/PM me because I want to read it again)

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Well, punk?

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I just started it now [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Questions:

turn blanks, he checks behind, river blanks, what do you do?
Lead? Check/call? check/fold?

Same questions, if its a diamond

Are you CR both a 2 and 6 on the turn?

[Fnord]

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turn blanks, he checks behind, river blanks, what do you do?
Lead? Check/call? check/fold?

Same questions, if its a diamond


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c/c a diamond. Otherwise, maybe bet/fold, but I'm used to bet/folding stronger hands.

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Are you CR both a 2 and 6 on the turn?

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I would c/r a 2 and consider folding to a 3-bet.

[CallMeIshmael]

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Well, punk?

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Disclaimer: I have massively pulled this out of my ass:


Lets look at when he checks the turn 5, and 10% of the time.

I made the assumptions:

when we hit a 6, we win the pot about 87% of the time. Is this a good assumption? I really have no idea. And when we hit a 2, we win about 75% of the time. (same question)

On average, we make about 2BB more when we win (sometimes we wiff, and sometimes he bet/folds), and lose about 3BB when we lose.

How are those assumptions?

Therefore,

6 on turn = (2/47) [(0.87)(7.33+4) - (0.13)*6] = 0.386

2 on turn = (3/47) [(0.75)(7.33+40 - (0.25)*6] = 0.447


Now, of course, the number 2 is going to be affected by how often he checks behind, but, lets just (badly) assume that it is constant..

this means our EV for when we catch is: 0.83 SB.

That means, if he checks behind 5% of the time:

0.83 sb - 0.95(42/47) sb = - 0.02 sb

10% of the time:

0.83 - 0.9(42/47) sb = 0.03 sb

Now... what do you think so far?

How are these estimates?

I want to add in what our EV is for when he checks the turn, but I want to get some feedback before I go any further.

[thejameser]

this flop should be folded. you got lucky and sucked out, at least on a fish. -EV.

[Fnord]

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this flop should be folded. you got lucky and sucked out, at least on a fish. -EV.

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Remember math class? It's like that, show your work and don't just write down an answer if you expect full credit [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'll buy that I should fold to the 3-bet, but I certainly think check/folding here against any player is giving up too much.