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#1
05-22-2005, 01:38 AM
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Re: World Series of Poker/WSOP Odds of Winning Main Event (May 21)
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how anyone could have better than 200/1 odds of winning this year. [/ QUOTE ] I am curious about this too, so I looked up the number of entrants per year at the WSOP (courtesy of the book, "The Championship Table" [excellent book, btw]) and I figure that if Doyle is correct and the competition is generally weaker now than it was then (he said this in an interview during ESPN's coverage of the WSOP), then it would stand to reason that 6,000 competitors today would be worth less than 6,000 1980-quality competitors. That being said, if we count them as one-to-one, and the odds are still in Doyle's favor (as per the "line" that was posted on him), then if both those things are true it would be a +EV bet. (just for the record, I'm doing this math right now, as soon as I'm done typing this sentence, so I have no idea what the results will be until I post them below). Total # of entrants from 1976 (the year Doyle first won)-2004: 22+34+42+54+73+75+104+108+132+140+141+152+167+178+ 194+ 215+201+220+268+273+295+312+350+393+512+613+631+83 9+2576= 9314* Number of times Doyle won the WSOP: 2 so 2 /9,314 should be the best poor man's approximation we can get on Doyle's odds of winning, and it equals 1/4,567, or 4566-to-1. So for Doyle to have 1/33 (32-to-1) odds of winning, he would pretty much have to be the only one playing. And even then, I'm not sure if it's +EV [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. *: The 2004 figure isn't included in "The Championship Table"; I got it here. As an aside, it's only fitting that Chris Ferguson the computer nerd from UCLA wins it in the year that the number of entries equals 2^8 (the number of possible nine-bit binary strings). As a double-aside, I typed in that long string of numbers first and then it took me a moment to figure out how to calculate them without having to retype into a calculator or some such, so I just wanted to boast that this post here was the impetus behind my most trivial use of Mathematica to date. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] *edit: messed it up, shouldn't have included the est. 2005 entrants in the denominator. Fraction fixed. *double-edit: In fact, for this to be a +EV bet, you'd have to work under the assumption that every single competitor from 1978 on was so weak as to not even merit inclusion in the calculations. Then his odds would be 1/28, and you would be wise to put some money on him. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 
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#2
05-22-2005, 10:28 AM
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Re: World Series of Poker/WSOP Odds of Winning Main Event (May 21)
[ QUOTE ]
Total # of entrants from 1976 (the year Doyle first won)-2004: 22+34+42+54+73+75+104+108+132+140+141+152+167+178+ 194+ 215+201+220+268+273+295+312+350+393+512+613+631+83 9+2576= 9314* Number of times Doyle won the WSOP: 2 so 2 /9,314 should be the best poor man's approximation we can get on Doyle's odds of winning, and it equals 1/4,567, or 4566-to-1. [/ QUOTE ] using this math Negreanu, Juanda, Lederer etc...Have a probability of zero of winning the Main Event. I'd recheck your calculations.
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#3
05-22-2005, 11:32 AM
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Re: World Series of Poker/WSOP Odds of Winning Main Event (May 21)
[ QUOTE ]
using this math Negreanu, Juanda, Lederer etc...Have a probability of zero of winning the Main Event. I'd recheck your calculations. [/ QUOTE ] ....I'm trying to think of a way to say "I was aware of that" without sounding like a douche. In any event, I never said that these were the One True Correct Odds for anyone winning the WSOP. In fact, if you look back at my post, you'll see that I say that these are a good "poor man's" estimate of Doyle's chances, for we have a lot of information about someone who has played in the WSOP every year it has run, and won it before. Doyle has logged one WSOP win per 4656 competitors he has faced - odds of 32-to-1 against him winning are ridiculous. Again, this was a simple poor man's way of finding out what Doyle's odds should be in the ballpark of (and poor man is exactly what youre going to be if you put a lot of money on him at 32-to-1). There's no way to figure out Negreanu/Lederer/Juanda's odds without doing some much more complicated (and, more importantly, much much more subjective) calculations and estimates, which is why I did not do that. *edit: another rough sketch you can do (since apparently these are "final table" odds I'm being informed, and not "win the WSOP odds) is Dan Harrington's chances, assuming he started playing the WSOP in '87 (I dont know when he actually did, but this is the first year I could confirm his participation), he has made 4 final table appearances out of WSOP main events totaling 8,389 entries, which is approximately 1 final table appearance per 2,097 opponents. So even though Harrington has the best final-table-reaching record of anyone, his odds of 65-to-1 are still absurd, even by this rough sketch.
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#4
05-23-2005, 12:40 AM
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Re: World Series of Poker/WSOP Odds of Winning Main Event (May 21)
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how anyone could have better than 200/1 odds of winning this year. [/ QUOTE ] I'd guess you could make that same statement with 1000:1
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#5
05-25-2005, 04:56 AM
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Re: World Series of Poker/WSOP Odds of Winning Main Event (May 21)
Real odds, by respected offshore book are as follows.....
2005 WSOP - Odds to win the tournament 101 Doyle Brunson +30000 102 Todd Brunson +30000 103 Johnny Chan +30000 104 David Chiu +30000 105 T.J. Cloutier +30000 106 Hoyt Corkins +30000 107 Allen Cunningham +30000 108 Hamid Dasmalchi +30000 109 Kassem "Freddy" Deeb +30000 110 Sam Farha +30000 111 Layne Flack +30000 112 Ted Forrest +30000 113 Chau Giang +30000 114 Barry Greenstein +30000 115 Hasan Habib +30000 116 Gus Hansen +30000 117 Jennifer Harman +30000 118 Dan Harrington +30000 119 Phil Hellmuth +30000 120 John Hennigan +30000 121 Phil Ivey +30000 122 John Juanda +30000 123 Howard Lederer +30000 124 Erick Lindgren +30000 125 Daniel Negreanu +30000 126 Scotty Nguyen +30000 127 Men "the Master" Nguyen +30000 128 David Pham +30000 129 Paul Phillips +30000 130 Erik Seidel +30000 131 Surinder Sunar +30000 132 Dewey Tomko +30000 133 Curtis Bibb 134 Humberto Brenes +30000 135 Russ Hamilton +40000 136 Robert Williamson III +40000 137 John Esposito +40000 138 David Plastik +40000 139 Antonio Esfandiari +40000 140 Alan Goehring +40000 141 Ming Li +40000 142 Chris "Jesus" Ferguson +40000 143 David Oppenheim +40000 144 Kathy Liebert +40000 145 Young Phan +40000 146 Prahlad Friedman +40000 147 Amir Vahedi +40000 148 Chip Jett +40000 149 Ralph Perry +40000 150 Lee Watkinson +40000 151 Scott Fischman +40000 152 Mike Laing +40000 153 Mimi Tran +50000 154 Jason Lester +50000 155 Alex Brenes +50000 156 Phil Laak +50000 157 Minh Ly +50000 158 Huck Seed +50000 159 Stan Goldstein +50000 160 Tommy Grimes +50000 161 Bill Gazes +50000 162 Bobby Hoff +50000 163 Steve Lott +50000 164 Danny Dang +50000 165 Billy Baxter +50000 166 Tobey Maguire +50000 167 Berry Johnston +50000 168 Jay Heimowitz +50000 169 Brent Carter +50000 170 Mori Eskandani +50000 171 Hans "Tuna" Lund +50000 172 David Benyamine +50000 173 Toto Leodides +50000 174 Mark Gregorich +50000 175 Robert Turner +50000 176 Carl McKelvey +50000 177 David Grey +50000 178 Howard "Tahoe" Andrews +50000 179 David "Chip" Reese +50000 180 Lee Salem +50000 181 Fred Bonyadi +50000 182 David "Devil Fish" Ulliot +50000 183 Brad Berman +50000 184 Jeff Shulman +50000 185 Sam Grizzle +50000 186 Eli Elezra +50000 187 Jim Bechtel +50000 188 Mike Sexton +50000 189 Al Krux +50000 190 Donna O'Dea +50000 191 Walter Threadgill +50000 192 Billy Duarte +50000 193 Paul Darden +70000 194 Craig Hartman +70000 195 Martin Deknijff +70000 196 Evelyn Ng +70000 197 Mohamed Ibrahim +70000 198 Jim Meehan +70000 199 Cyclona "Clonie" Gowan +70000 200 Ali Sarkeshik +70000 201 Steve Kopp +70000 202 Tony Bloom +70000 203 Jim McManus +70000 204 Steve Zolotow +70000 205 Tom Jacobs +70000 206 Thor Hansen +70000 207 Ron Stanley +70000 208 Mike Cox +70000 209 Tom Franklin +70000 210 Adam Schoenfeld +70000 211 Mike Wattel +70000 212 Ben Affleck +70000 213 An "Boss" Tran +70000 214 Dan "A" Alspach +70000 215 Paul "Eskimo" Clark +70000 216 Dan Heimiller +70000 217 Mickey Appleman +70000 218 Scotty Lundberg +70000 219 Peter "the Greek" Vilandos +70000 220 Mimi Rogers +70000 221 Lucy Rokach +70000 222 Derek Tomko +70000 223 Mark Weitzman +70000 224 Marsha Waggoner +70000 225 Chad Brown +70000 226 Brian Nadell +70000 227 Jim Miller +70000 228 "Amarillo Slim" Preston +70000 229 Kevin Song +70000 230 Chris Tsiprailidis +70000 231 Chris Bjorin +70000 232 Fred David +70000 233 Linda Johnson +70000 234 Paul Magriel +70000 235 George Rodis +70000 236 Phongthep "Tab" Thiptinnakon +70000 237 Jim Ward +70000 238 Randy Holland +70000 239 Yosh Nakano +70000 240 Lyle Berman +90000 241 Jesse Jones +90000 242 Bob Feduniak +90000 243 Maureen Feduniak +90000 244 James Wood +90000 245 Gabe Kaplan +90000 246 Dutch Boyd +90000 247 Hilbert Shirey +70000 248 Jason Grey +90000 249 David Sklansky +90000 250 Mike Caro +90000 251 Don Zewin +90000 252 Barry Shulman +90000 253 Kenna James +90000 254 Charlie Shoten +90000 255 Annie Duke +90000 256 Tom McEvoy +90000 257 Louis Asmo +90000 258 Fred Sigur +90000 259 Ross Boatman +90000 260 Barny Boatman +90000 261 Peter Costa +90000 262 Cyndy Violette +90000 263 Kristy Gazes +90000 264 Al Korsin +90000 265 John Bonetti +90000 266 Chad Moore +90000 267 Ram Vaswani +90000 268 Max Stern +90000 269 Mel Wiener +90000 270 Shahram Sheikhan +90000 271 Chris Moneymaker +90000 272 Greg "Fossilman" Raymer +90000 273 Mason Malmuth +90000 274 Ralph Rudd +90000 275 Ed "Dudley" Rudd +90000 276 Steve Lavine +90000 277 Phil Gordon +90000 278 "Oklahoma Johnny" Hale +90000 279 Melissa Hayden +90000 280 Eli Balas +90000 281 Randy Jensen +90000 282 Phillip Earl +90000 283 Jack Fox +90000 284 Casey Kastle +90000 285 George Pitsillidis +90000 286 Jack Ward +90000 287 Barbara Enright +90000 288 Barbara Gold +90000 289 Denny Axel +90000 290 Jeff Mervis +90000 291 Dewey Weum +90000 292 Carlos Mortenson +90000 293 Julian Studley +120000 294 Bob Stupak +120000 295 Bruno Fitoussi +120000 296 Wendeen Eolis +120000 297 Larry Flynt +120000 298 Jerry Buss +120000 299 Frank Mariani +120000 300 Susie Issacs +120000 301 Ed Norton +120000 302 Lou Diamond Phillips +120000 303 Andy "the Banker" Beal +120000 304 Ralph Levine +120000 305 Perry Green +120000 306 George Hardie +120000 307 Frank Henderson +120000 308 Al DeCarlo +120000 309 Leonardo DiCaprio +120000 310 Matt Damon +120000 311 "Miami" John Cernuto +70000 312 Abe Mosseri +70000 313 Alan Boston +70000 314 Mel Judah +40000 315 Danny Nguyen +70000
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#6
05-25-2005, 05:40 AM
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Re: World Series of Poker/WSOP Odds of Winning Main Event (May 21)
[ QUOTE ]
Real odds, by respected offshore book are as follows..... 2005 WSOP - Odds to win the tournament 101 Doyle Brunson +30000 102 Todd Brunson +30000 103 Johnny Chan +30000 [/ QUOTE ] ....I'm sorry, I don't mean to newb this up, but what in the hell does "+30000" mean in terms of odds?
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#8
05-25-2005, 08:20 AM
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Re: World Series of Poker/WSOP Odds of Winning Main Event (May 21)
a few interesting bets......
186 Eli Elezra +50000 195 Martin Deknijff +70000 292 Carlos Mortenson +90000 and max props for the 2+2 crew...... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] 246 Dutch Boyd +90000 249 David Sklansky +90000 273 Mason Malmuth +90000
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#9
05-25-2005, 11:29 AM
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Re: World Series of Poker/WSOP Odds of Winning Main Event (May 21)
Where is Tuan Le? He has won 2 major WPT events in the past few months and obviously knows how to win. He's not even on this list! The whole thing is garbage!
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#10
05-25-2005, 10:33 PM
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Re: World Series of Poker/WSOP Odds of Winning Main Event (May 21)
Why would humberto brenes be lower then his brothers who suck didnt he place top 3 in back to back wpt or i think he won 1 and 2nd the other makes no sense. Anyway if thats final table humberto has got to be best bet here.
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