Lack of confidence abounds

[toots]

Ok, gergery tells us that I can probably make my way at stakes higher than .50/1.00 on Party. Indeed, I've dabbled in the full-table $1/2 games and done ok.

I just don't believe it.

So far, I have 4000 hands at $.50/1.00. I've grown my initial $50 to just over $190 in about a month. Not a stampede, but respectable, I guess.

Last night, I sat down and three-tabled at the usual $.50/1.00. Tables started out fairly tight but eventually loosened up.

All three started out pretty bad - few starting hands, and what hands I did get weren't that strong and ended up getting counterfeited or not making their draws. Throw in my quota of at least two ultra-donk plays per session and some dry decks, and before long, I'm down about $20.

I stuck with it, quit donking, and slowly started hitting hands. I went on to get a royal flush and quads in fairly rapid succession. I ended the session ahead on all three tables, with a net win rate in the 5-6 BB/100 range. Definitely not a bad winrate, even considering that I was at hyperfishy limits.

I ultimately quit all three because I noticed that once I got ahead, I was getting hesitant to play decent starting hands, for fear of undoing my winnings. I figured if I was too afraid to play good hands, my game was suffering, and it was time to quit, even though the tables were still on the upswing in their fish quotients.

I tried to reassure myself that I was playing decently enough, that my winnings so far can't entirely be luck alone, but then I started shooting myself in the foot with thoughts that I just got lucky with the royal flush and quads, even though neither of those hands paid very much.

This is what I suspect ultimately undermines my win rate and/or willingness to move up in limits. According to my scant 4000 hands, my variance is low enough and win rate high enough that I am bankrolled for $.50/1.00, but it just doesn't feel like it.