New 200+15er has some variance questions

[BradleyT]

Controversial post to get you started

[lorinda]

I think it's something like 75,000 to know your ROI within 1%

Your ITM converges a heck of a lot quicker and you can start to make some guesses at things after 1000-2000, but ROI takes forever.

Lori

[Freudian]

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1000 - 5000.

Think of it this way. A SnG lasts say 70 hands max. Most of the time you won't make it that many hands. One of the most important places is on the bubble (4-5 players left). This will usually last 10-15 hands or so. So even after 1000 SnG's you haven't even played 10,000 bubble hands (since you won't make it to the bubble every time). Now you need even more SnG's before your in the money (hand distribution/winning %) starts to even out because you probably only make it there 35% of the time or less.

And none of the even considers running good or bad [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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Not to mention most players have an evolution of their game during those first 1000-2000 SnGs, making the numbers hard to interpret.

[Fortitude]

I don't see how my SN's are at all relevant to my post.

[Apathy]

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I don't see how my SN's are at all relevant to my post.

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I might be able to tell you if I think you can beat the game or not.. that was your original question was it not?

[the shadow]

Check out the threads at section 5.2 of the favorite threads list.

[Paul2432]

If ROI is 10% then after 1000 you get be 95% sure you are better than break even.

After 5000 95% +/-5%.

edit to add:

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I'm not 100% sure on these numbers but they're close and if you want to know exactly run a search as there are many threads on it)


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Paul