5/10 NL, 55 in the SB

[Rocaix]

MP could have something like 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] but it seems equally likely that he could play a set like this, especially if Maniac is type that'll call 120bb with a TPTK type hand.

If Maniac will come along, I'd be tempted to call getting 3.2 to 1, although someone's going to have FH redraw a substantial amount of the time. Best case scenario MP has 97s, and maniac has AK/AQ/AJ. But I don't know if I want to gambool for my entire stack when I know I have to catch a spade to win.

[xorbie]

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MP could have something like 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] but it seems equally likely that he could play a set like this, especially if Maniac is type that'll call 120bb with a TPTK type hand.

If Maniac will come along, I'd be tempted to call getting 3.2 to 1, although someone's going to have FH redraw a substantial amount of the time. Best case scenario MP has 97s, and maniac has AK/AQ/AJ. But I don't know if I want to gambool for my entire stack when I know I have to catch a spade to win.

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That's actually not a great scenario because 4 of your flush outs are missing (2 in his hand, 2 more making a straight flush). That leaves you with less flush outs and 3 2's to make a hand.

Best scenario is what you listed except SB folds.

[gomberg]

well - they both seem VERY loose aggro, so the stats point me to a call. Even in the absolute worst situation you could imagine (AA vs. straight flush draw) - you're still going to win a little more than 16% of the time, which sucks - but this won't happen very often. I'd say most of the time if both call you'll be about 3:1 to win or a little better. If you think the maniac will actually fold (which seems doubtful here), then you're in great shape against another draw but still 25% against a set or 2-pair. I say call.

[thatpfunk]

I am guessing the maniac will come along if you call.

If so, I like a call for the reasons others stated + the chance to double and relieve the maniac of his $$ is now a reality.

[ShortySaurus]

gambool???? especially if u think maniac might call?

[AZK]

I think I'm in the call camp, more so because I think maniac is going to come along too. I'd probably be a little more hesitant if the SB was a rock instead and would fold thus losing out in extra 1000.

[bobneptune]

fsp,

i think this is an easy call if you are not afraid to gamble.

first, its impossible to put the BB maniac on any hand, since an agressive player who lead out pre flop is expected to make a pot sized bet after the flop whether it hit him or not. that's the beauty of agressive play... you pick up a lot of pots without a fight, only , not this time :-> :-> :->

by the way, you didn't mention what the utg limper did, so i'll assume he folded.

now, on a board with possible straights and flushes, MP pushes. why ??? a pot sized bet of $550 would give all drawing hands improper odds to call, so why risk the extra dough ???

what range of hands allows MP to go all in ??? a straight or flush draw ??? he's less than 40% to complete his hand, so he's a dog vs any pair. a set of 6's or 8's (A's less likely since you have Asp). certainly possible, but they are at risk to the straights and flushes on the board.

if he has a set of 6's or 8's, you have 9 outs to the flush and 2 outs to the top set which makes you a small dog, but the pot will be offering you about 3:2

the worst hands he could have for you would be AA or Ax when he has you outkicked. even in these cases, the 3:2 pot odds makes it a virtual dead heat call with your 9 outs to the nut flush.

i'm in almost any hand that i'm getting 3:2 from the pot and i have a pair of aces and 4 to the nut flush. you couldn't blow me out of there with a stick of dynamite.

of course, i might be seen walking around with a barrel tomorrow, but , what the hell.....

[Mark1808]

SB shows strength and MP goes over the top all in, I would bet you are behind right now. You are getting 1.5 - 1 on a 1.86 - 1 flush draw, bad bet. If the small blind comes in you are now getting 2.5 - 1 and this would be a reasonable call. Personally I would not want to jepoardize my whole chip stack unless I knew for sure the SB was coming in. I would lay it down.

[thabadguy]

Its quite possible that MP pushes here because of SB's maniac image, in order to push out of the pot. You have top pair with nut flush draw, I think a call here isnt outta line, MP could have a PP or even AK.
I doubt a set raises so big here.

[cero_z]

Hi fsu,

I don't get it. You're being offered 1550 to 1000, with the SB fairly likely to come along, right? You have top pair and a draw to the nuts, and you could be up against only TPTK or something similar that you have additional outs against, right? And, the all-in guy could be drawing nearly dead to you if he has a flush draw, right? I'm never folding in this spot.