JJ hand from the Bahammas

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I put faith in his read that she didn't have a big hand. What non-big hand is possibly calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

okay, but on paper she hasn't been out of line all day. Are we really discounting her because her hands aren't shaking? I mean, sure, she could have a wide enough range here that AA-QQ is only like 10% of her possible hands, but it's still 10%. That should be in your little model somewhere, possibly making this a fold.

[MLG]

that makes things much much more complicated, but perhaps you're right. Although I think she folds QQ here somtimes too (actually somewhat frequently). However, if we put the button on the really tight range I did then yes, maybe cecilia's presence makes it a fold.

Generally I think the real crux of the hand is how big the big stack's range is though. You know, if either of us are on the button its an easy push, if its a tighter Harringtonite its an easy fold.

[mondo]

MLG/Sossman,

I defer to your expertise (I have learned quite a bit from reading your posts, ty.) It would seem that the OP is in a good position to push, IMO.....

Reason: HOH "Sandwich Effect".... Cecilia opened w/ a "standard" raise, pro re-raised. Perhaps that is to be expected, and while oop, the original re-raise would seem an easy call for Cecilia, based on pot odds,to see the flop.

An all-in "re"-re-raise out of the blinds by an unknown player has to give Cecilia "serious pause"..... she has a marginal amount invested, the all-in has declared a big hand, and the button is yet to act..... I imagine she could pick a better spot to risk her tourney life [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Additionally, the pro who MAY have been looking to force the blinds out, and "outplay" Cecilia is now looking at committing a sizeable portion of his stack having lost the ability to outplay his opposition .....

Sure, the OP might run into QQ, KK, AA.... c'est la vie !!!

Just seems to me that Cecilia has an easy fold without a monster, and the pro probably isn't looking to double up an unknown commodity at the risk of 60% of his stack.....

Interested to hear your comments....

peace, mondo

P.S. What do I know ? I folded JJ out of the SB at Foxwoods WPT..... but that was to a raise and TWO [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]re-raises .... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
I put faith in his read that she didn't have a big hand. What non-big hand is possibly calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

She needs AA or KK to call here. In fact about a 15 minutes earlier Hoyt Corkins had moved in from UTG from about 5k, and I pushed about 28k with AhKh. She played with chips for about 5 minutes and decided to fold on the buttin with a 30kish stack. She told the whole table she had laid down QQ, and she wasnt lying.

I was almost positive she was raising light in the JJ hand, because of her actions when she had the pocket queens. She looked like a nervous wreck and could barely break any chips off her stack, this wasnt the case at all here, and it was pretty obvious. She just threw in raise and all hard and strong or whatever, and it looked pretty weak. I almost think this influenced my decision too much, since I was sure the player on the button didnt miss this, and he is good enough and sharp enough to try and make a move.

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, the OP might run into QQ, KK, AA.... c'est la vie !!!

[/ QUOTE ]

The question is, how likely is it.

[Steve Giufre]

Thanks for all the replies. I look forward to posting more hands. Anyhow I finally decided to push, Cecilia, auto mucked, and the button took a good long while and called with KK. After the hand I felt like maybe I had made a mistake, but I really think he has a fairly wide range of hands here, and as MLG said if he is even occationally making this play with AJ, KQ or something random its a push.

I'm surprised nobody gave more thought to just smooth calling. At the time I thought it was an interesting option, and I was really torn between all three at the time. If the stacks were just a little deeper I think I would like it more, but I'm not sure it leaves me with the option to make a flop bet at a non ace board and fold to a push if I dont like my hand with only 30k. With 40k or so, maybe it makes more sense.

Also FWIW, I was fairly certain at the time the button would defintely fold AQ, and probably even AK, since I had been card dead and he viewed me as much tighter than I really was. Thanks again.

[MLG]

If he folds AK even half the time, I think this is a clear push. Interesting hand Steve, I look forward to more of them.

[HiatusOver]

MLG, why are you ruling out calling as a possible option? Steve is a good buddy of mine and we traded a pretty big piece in this tournament. When he told me about the hand I am pretty sure I told him I believed flat-calling would have been his best play pre-flop. What is the reason u and other posters didnt even give it a mention? Anyways good post Steve, u have inspired me to post a few of my WPT/WSOP circuit hands over the next few days.

[MLG]

I'm not ruling it out, but im not sure what you want to accomplish with a flat call. If your trying to keep yourself from going broke against an overpair i think you leave yourself a chance of being run off the best hand. I suppose the plan would be to bet about 10k on any non A flop? If you get raised and fold you leave yourself with 14k with the blinds 400-800. He doesn't have to raise you with a worse hand very often to make that line disastrous. I can see that raise happening from 1010/99 on an all undercard flop. Or the times when you check fold to those hands on an A high flop. Not to mention your now giving Cecilia great odds to come along with whatever she has. If that happens you are now playing a 24k pot with 24k in your stack out of position. Thats yucky in the extreme.

In order for me to call I'd need to be very sure that Cecilia wasn't coming, and have pretty good control over the button.