AA Flops Nut Flush Draw On Button

[Jazza]

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meh, what do you expect to get called by if i bet the flop?

and if i check, how is this bad?

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wtf

Who cares what you're getting CALLED by, dude. Them folding isn't bad. Why would you give a free card? Maybe idiot with AQs calls here. Why would you let KQ or some other crappy hand get a free shot at beating you?

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if some one's got KQ i can risk a 4-outer against me

i just think checking is more likely for me to get money in from weaker hands on later streets, either by them hitting a flush with a lone K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or by them calling my turn/river bet with just a Q since i have shown weakness on the flop

[Jordan Olsommer]

Also now that I look at the hand history more closely, there really wasnt a whole lot for you to fear with that flop - you raised 6.5xBb, so what could your opponents possibly have that could beat you?

QQ - Ok, he's got a set, but you've still got 11 outs.
77 - very unlikely, since we see in retrospect that he would have to have exactly the two remaining sevens in the unseen cards (not to mention the fact that he probably would've bet bigger on fifth street with quads [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])
55 - unlikely

and what about the chances of somebody having a made flush already?

King-high flush? unlikely - what the heck would they be holding? He can't be holding K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] because the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is on the board, and unless your opponents are pitifully bad, they're not going to call a 6xBb raise with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or lower.

Baby-flush? Actually I would argue that this possibility is slightly more likely than the king-high flush possibility, but only because a lot of small-stakes NLHE players like to be tricky with suited connectors. OK, so if one of your opponents called your huge preflop raise with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], fine - that's a bad beat, but not only will you get him in the long run, but you also have 9 outs to win. Other than the possibility that one of your opponents were trying to be too sneaky for his own good, what could he have to give him a flush? J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? Both very unlikely.

My guess is that BB called your raise with AQ or maybe 55 or QQ (although again, it would be hard to believe that he wouldn't fold the fives or reraise with the queens), checked the flop to dip his toe in the waters, then came out with a 90%-pot sized bet on fourth street thinking that his AQ was good.

[-Skeme-]

It's not just KQ you're worried about. The range of hands for a $200 NL player to be limp-calling with is huge and against 2 players I think you need to bet here.

[Jazza]

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It's not just KQ you're worried about. The range of hands for a $200 NL player to be limp-calling with is huge and against 2 players I think you need to bet here.

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i still don't see how i should be afraid of getting sucked out on here

[Jordan Olsommer]

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i still don't see how i should be afraid of getting sucked out on here

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You shouldn't - with this flop, either you're beat but not terribly at the moment, or you're way ahead (the only flushes youll run into are crap flushes, and while theyre probably going to show down as long as a fourth heart doesnt show up, they are going to walk on eggshells the entire hand if you show strength) - but just because its very unlikey that youll get sucked out on doesnt mean you should give your opponents a free card (or for that matter, instill confidence in some schlub with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or pocket fives).

[TrailofTears]

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and if i check, how is this bad?


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if a free card more likely to help you or hurt you? in this case, i think it's a toss up, so i don't hate the check, but i think a bet could be argued for as well.

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I agree. I am not advocating a check out of fear. After all, we are on the draw to the nuts, correct? I am advocating a bet because I think we should bet here. If they fold, so be it. If they call, we have tons of outs against almost any holding they could have. I like our position, and I like our chances in this hand. Therefore, I like bettting.

That being said, perhaps I should say that I don't think that checking behind is terrible here at all.

-T

[emil3000]

In my opinion, the main advantage of a flop bet is that you get to check behind on the turn.

[-Skeme-]

I don't see how you can make a case for not betting here because nothing worse is calling. I think this concept is applied wayyy too often on this forum.

[bobman0330]

You should bet the flop because you don't want this hand to play out the way it did. You should bet the flop because you have an overpair with a good draw to the nuts. If you bet the flop:
A. Everyone folds. Good.
B. Someone calls. You either make the nuts on the turn or don't. Bet again or take a free card, accordingly. (your check might induce a bluff from something like KhQ.)
C. You get raised by the BB. The worst scenario, but you can get all your money in with good conscience. maybe even against the aforementioned KhQ.
D. You get raised by the CO. A tough spot. Make a judgment call.

A check is awful because you now have to call your opponents down. You've taken your big hand, in position, with initiative, and given it over to your opponents. Ugh.

[-Skeme-]

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A check is awful because you now have to call your opponents down. You've taken your big hand, in position, with initiative, and given it over to your opponents. Ugh.

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This is what I was thinking, but couldn't put it into a sentence.