Bad result good decision just off bubble with AQ?

[curtains]

You are making too many mathemetical mistakes for me to give much credit to your argument. If called you are almost guaranteed not to cash? You've never seen AQ beat AK or KK? If you call odds like that "guaranteed", then you don't have a firm understanding of math.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]

You are making too many mathemetical mistakes for me to give much credit to your argument. If called you are almost guaranteed not to cash? You've never seen AQ beat AK or KK? If you call odds like that "guaranteed", then you don't have a firm understanding of math.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course I've seen AQ beat all those hands. I've seen 72o beat AA, you have too. "Guaranteed" is too strong, but losing is definitely "likely."

AA vs AQ = 92/8
KK vs AQ = 72/28
QQ vs AQ = 70/30
AK vs AQ = 74/26

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't just look at the range of hands they will call an allin with and decide they are all dominating you so you should fold. You have to look at how likely it is for them to actually have those hands, which is something you made no attempt whatsoever to do.

[/ QUOTE ]
btw, as I alluded to in my previous post, my thought process goes something like this:
"What is the possible range of hands he has?"
"If I push here, what percentage of hands does he call with?"
"If he calls, how often do I win?"
"How is my overall chance of cashing affected when he folds? When he calls and I win? When he calls and I lose?"

Yeah, I didn't say that in the post, but that's fundamental poker work. Those are the kinds of questions you need to be asking yourself on every hand. I'm not going to explain how to differentiate between a premium hand and absolute trash, either - there are some skills that we assume are put to use any time a player is at a table.

[raptor517]

well, the stars tournaments are a lot more deep stacked than party, and as such, you must play them differently. i like calling and taking a flop. if it comes Q high, well, you lose. folding is the worst play, pushing kinda sucks, but calling i think is goot. holla

[curtains]

Well okay a few notes... I believe that if we had 1500 chips in the BB, then pushing is correct and it's not close. The more chips you have the less attractive it is, but I have a hard time agreeing that it's terrible and by far the worst play, just because we have 600 more chips.

[Cry Me A River]

Call me weak, but, as a matter of policy I make it a rule to play very tight against the big stack unless I have a specific read as they're generally much more likely to make marginal decisions to try and build their stack while busting people out - ie: If I know he's an aggresive stealer who is likely to fold anything but premium hands when played back at. Even then, I really dislike pushing AQ against agression when I'm not in desperation mode.

I don't mind calling here and playing the flop, however I think pushing is way too dangerous and you'd be much better off stealing against the other three 2K stacks. There's just no real reason to be taking coin-flips here. Yeah, you'd love him to call with AJ, but what about TT? Or even KTs? Sure you have a bit of an edge there but I think when you consider all the hands you dominate, plus all the hands which crush you, plus all the coinflips/slight favorites this winds up basically being a coin flip. A coin flip you don't really need.

If you were T1000, then sure, absolutely, push away. Or if this was against one of the other T2000 stacks and he'd been doing some stealing then I'd absolutely play back at him. But doing this against the big stack is way too likely to result in self-destruction.