Crazy 88's

[gopnik]

Looks likes like AA,KK, or AQ to me. I don't think he would push a flopped set of Qs like that on the flop.
So, jam....

[Redd]

Grunching.

No, I wouldn't 3-bet preflop against a 2% pfr.

I'd 3-bet the turn, and if he capped I'd consider going into calldown mode. If the river wasn't an ace, I'd consider lead-raising it too, because I've seen many players go crazy with aces like this because a pair of aces never loses.

[NickRegino]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a good example of where the stats on the player don't give us the information we want. Sure we could be up against a bigger set, but we can't always fear the worst when we likely have the best of it. At the very least raise the turn and if he caps it you can show your hand down for one bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Bodhi]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...14&fpart=1

We are all pissing away chips if we don't play hands like these more aggressively.

[yellowjack]

Yeah on second thought that is good. When I posted I was thinking of a hand I posted a few months ago where I thought I should've 3-bet the river, not the turn and got mixed up.

[scotty34]

I would actually raise this PF, but that is pretty marginal. On the turn, when I have a set and no straight or flush possible, I would 3-bet in an instant. I would possibly slow down if he capped it, but even then not likely. You are up against a higher set so few times, that this is clearly for value.

[gopnik]

the river was not an A

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a good example of where the stats on the player don't give us the information we want.

[/ QUOTE ]
The stats are actually very helpful:

Preflop: Villain is unlikely to have AQ for his raise. The small chance that he does is negated by JJ. This is really an AA/KK/QQ problem.

Turn: The turn raise is near the cutoff point where this player stops pushing a one-pair hand. There is a moderate chance that Villain doesn't make this raise without a set. There is a very large chance that he has raised AA or KK for the last time. You should assume that you need 2-1 odds to 3-bet because you will probably win one bet if you are right but lose two bets when you are wrong.

AA/KK is 12 hands while QQ is 3 hands. That gives you a 4-1 chance if he is equally likely to play all of these hands this way. Since I think that is roughly true I would 3-bet the turn. But that is absolutely as far as I go. If you get capped or raised on the river you need to call down and don't expect much.

Also note the outs situation. If you are behind on the turn you are dead, but when you are ahead he still has two outs to the overset. That means that if you are a 70% favorite to be ahead you are only about a 67% favorite to win. This consideration could tip the balance if the situation were a little closer or if Villain had more outs.