Idol: Two performances each, and the themes are....

[GrannyMae]

btw,

i'm afraid vonzell may be going home. she is bottom 3 every week and scott was very strong. vonzell or anthony gone imo

[Uglyowl]

Between Bo and Carrie, I really can't pick a favorite now. It is getting to the point where there isn't a whole lot of +EV.

Pigs get slaughtered... good move on unloading some Granny imho.

[contentless]

[ QUOTE ]
scott was very strong

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if he wasn't, at this point, Idol producers are keeping him on so that he doesn't kill Simon.

[SinSixer]

[ QUOTE ]
sell 30 more BO, i have my investment back

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your points. However this is the type of mathematically illogical statement that would casue NPA to get his nuts in a twist. You've already laid that money out in an investment, now the object is to make the most profitable decisions.

That is, selling shares to cover your expenditure, is not the most +EV move. If you want to assuage your ego and know your not going to "lose" money this year by covering losses thats one thing.

Maximizing EV is a whole other ballgame.

[Uglyowl]

[ QUOTE ]
Maximizing EV is a whole other ballgame.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think tonight Bo reached about his real value tonight which is about 40 at the moment.

I don't think you can argue that is he has a better chance than Carrie.

Also the fact the Vonzell has a small chance puts him at about fair value earlier.

[NoChance]

Second time I have seen Idol. I thought Carrie rocked. Here is the order I would put from what I saw tonight having no past bias being this is my only second viewing.

1. Carrie
2. Vonzell
3. Bo
4. Scott
5. Anthony

[J_V]

I think Vonzell has the best big song capability, but her personality doesn't bode that well for her. I'm short on her for that reason - and she's dead if she makes the final 3. But what was the deal with Simon rallying her fans but saying she had an off week? She was going home, he was right, but Simon blew it.

I thought she had a great week song wise. It's almost as if Simon knew she sang well but was in voting trouble and was trying to save her.

[GrannyMae]

Maximizing EV is a whole other ballgame.

without a doubt.

however...

1. there is so much that can happen between now and the finals

2. it is a RARE situation to be able to remove 100% of the risk and have exactly 142 contracts remaining on such a strong performer.


1+2 = the most unique situation i have ever been in when betting futures.

*anything* can happen SS

considering carrie's strength, and considering i get 100% of my money back, i am a very happy camper.

i am a wuss perhaps, but now i can't lose a dime. finally, the 142 remaining will be active equity. i don't have to hold ALL of them. matter of fact, i think i'll go buy some scotty's now. scotty final 3 with bo & carrie
[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[SinSixer]

[ QUOTE ]
I think tonight Bo reached about his real value tonight which is about 40 at the moment.

I don't think you can argue that is he has a better chance than Carrie.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you. I don't know if he has a better chance than Carrie.

Assume he does. Then holding all your Bo's untill the end, would be the most +EV play.

Assuming he doesn't. He is either at his peak, or close too it. Selling ALL your Bo's at this point is the most +EV play.


The difference between $40 and $100 is too great to give up if you think Bo has a 50% or better chance to win. My read is that it is a dead heat between Bo and Carrie at the moment.

[GrannyMae]

<font color="red"> You have Bought 50 of 50 SCOTT SAVOL at $2 for the AMERICAN IDOL CHAMPION 2005 </font>




(it should be noted that i sold 55 of him for $1 a few days ago)


wooooo

granny a whack