Help discounting outs

[WalkAmongUs]

1) I'd give it 9 outs. I think the backdoor straight draw is close to worthless.

2) 11 outs. Discounted slightly in case of higher flush.

3) 6 outs. I'd discount 2 for the times a 9 hits and someone has a 10

4) 5.5 outs. Same as above but backdoor flush doesn't add any since you may lose to a higher flush and high boards makes it more likely someone will draw a straight that beats yours.

5) 6 outs. Discount the jack of clubs since if you hit it it probably gives someone a straight.

6) 2 outs. Drawing to straight flush to beat full house. Could you count the two red fives as 1 out since they don't exactly hurt you? (discount to 1 since you may already be against a full house)

7) 3 outs to a better hand assuming none has a flush yet. If you are against AK though you are down to 1 out for a tie. Depends on what your read is and what happened preflop.

8) 4.5 outs. 3 clean 7 outs and 1.5 outs for the tens (discounted for the times the ten makes someone a higher straight). Again this assumes you are not behind a flush already.

On numbers 5, 7, and 8 if that third suit hits and people wake up I'm probably layin down.

[jubeirm]

I think too much credit is given for backdoor flush and straight draws. Just looking at the runner-runner possibilities I computed this:

Straight
My hand: 8x
Board: 67y
Ways to hit: 45, 59, 9T => 3x16 = 48
Odds: 2114:48 or 44:1

Flush
My hand: As and non-spade
Board: XsYs plus non-spade
Ways to hit: 9x8 = 72
Odds: 2090:72 or 29:1

Compared to the smooth relation between outs and odds they both come out to about 3/4 outs. I would count both at 1/2 outs since we are usually adding to an existing count and the two countings will likely overlap. Let me know if I've botched my calculations, I would love to be able to add more for these situations [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
I think too much credit is given for backdoor flush and straight draws. Just looking at the runner-runner possibilities I computed this:

Straight
My hand: 8x
Board: 67y
Ways to hit: 45, 59, 9T => 3x16 = 48
Odds: 2114:48 or 44:1

Flush
My hand: As and non-spade
Board: XsYs plus non-spade
Ways to hit: 9x8 = 72
Odds: 2090:72 or 29:1

Compared to the smooth relation between outs and odds they both come out to about 3/4 outs. I would count both at 1/2 outs since we are usually adding to an existing count and the two countings will likely overlap. Let me know if I've botched my calculations, I would love to be able to add more for these situations [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

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ummm...i'm assuming you're refering to hand #1 since that's only place i give credit to a backdoor draw? yes, i over counted it, but when i play i don't nit-pick when i have that many outs. lower it to as low as 9.5 if you wish. with that many outs, the pot is either big enough or it isn't. there is a lot of other factors not discussed or asked for by the OP, so whatever helps.

but, good point, 1.5 for that many gaps may a bit high.

[deception5]

1.JTs
Board:6h7sQs

9 flush outs, 1.5 bds outs = 10.5 outs

2.35s
Board:6h7sQs

9 flush + 3 gutshot = 12 outs

3.5h5s
Board:6c7h8d

Maybe 1 outs for the 5's, 4 4's, maybe 2 for the 9 (depending on how many players in the hand) = 7

4.9h9s
Board:TsJsQh

Probably .5 for the 4th bdf, 3.5 for the 8's, maybe 1 for a king (as so many will play Ax), maybe .5 for the 9 = around 5.5

5.JhJs
Board:9dTdQd

.5 for the jack, probably 2.5 for the kings and 8's (since you will sometimes already be behind a flush or someone could improve to one after you make your hand) = 5.5

6.98s
Board:7s6s7cTc

You almost definitely already have the best hand here - bet and raise - don't worry about outs. If you're behind, the flush won't help (even better that you have 2 of the flush outs for other players as well).

7.KsQh
Board:JcTc9sQc

This is another case where if you are behind you aren't catching up so outs aren't really relevant. Hope you didn't let those flush draws see the turn cheaply ;-)

8.98s
Board:QcJd6d5d

Around 2 T outs and 2 7 outs = 4

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
I think too much credit is given for backdoor flush and straight draws. Just looking at the runner-runner possibilities I computed this:

Straight
My hand: 8x
Board: 67y
Ways to hit: 45, 59, 9T => 3x16 = 48
Odds: 2114:48 or 44:1

Flush
My hand: As and non-spade
Board: XsYs plus non-spade
Ways to hit: 9x8 = 72
Odds: 2090:72 or 29:1

Compared to the smooth relation between outs and odds they both come out to about 3/4 outs. I would count both at 1/2 outs since we are usually adding to an existing count and the two countings will likely overlap. Let me know if I've botched my calculations, I would love to be able to add more for these situations .

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Keep in mind 1 out is only saying you only have about a 4% (1:24) chance over the next 2 cards or 2% over the next 1 card - (around 1:49). If you miss the turn you will not count the out again when determining if you should see the river and if you hit the turn you will have greatly increased wining chances so your implied odds are pretty good here - particularly since most people won't give you credit for a backdoor flush so you might make at least an extra BB on the river (or more against a set/straight).

Also, a backdoor straight or backdoor flush out is unlikely to give you odds to call but if you have a backdoor flush, a gutshot and 2 overcards your hand could be worth 8.5 outs or more with fewer players (where each of these conditions individually might not have been enough of a reason to call).

D5

[AlmightyJay]

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1.JTs

Board:6h7sQs

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I'd give this ten outs - 9 for the flush draw and 1 for the backdoor straight.

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2.35s

Board:6h7sQs

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I'd say 10.5 outs. 9 for the flush draw, 1.5 for the gutshot (because hitting a 4 gives you the idiot end)

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3.5h5s

Board:6c7h8d

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Ugh. I'd give maybe 1.5 outs tops here. 1 for the 4's and .5 for the 5's. And that might be being generous, because often you'll hit those and still lose.

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4.9h9s

Board:TsJsQh

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This is pretty much exactly the same as the last one, except now you have a backdoor flush draw. But the flush draw is practically worthless. I'd give this one 2 outs tops.

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5.JhJs

Board:9dTdQd

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An 8 or a K might be good here, but you have to be wary of either a fourth [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or someone who may already have the flush. Your J outs are almost certainly no good. I'd give this a tentative 4 outs.

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6.98s

Board:7s6s7cTc

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You realize you already have a straight..? Regardless, you have 9 outs to improve to a flush.

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7.KsQh

Board:JcTc9sQc

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You're losing to AK or a flush, but if you can be confident no one has them from the betting, then there's no reason to count outs on this hand. If you think you're behind to AK, then you have 3 A outs, but one of them is highly tainted (A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) and the other two are a chop. 1 out at best.

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8.98s

Board:QcJd6d5d

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You've got three solid outs in the non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7s, and somewhat sketchy outs in the non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Ts. Of course, you could be behind to a flush, in which case bail. But if you don't think it's out there, I give this around 4.5 outs.

[numeri]

1. JTs
Board:6h7sQs

Usually 9 outs for the flush and 1.5 for a BDSD. Depending on pre-flop and flop action, the flush outs could be discounted very slightly.

2. 35s
Board:6h7sQs

I'm not sure here. The flush draw is pretty low, so not the full 9. Maybe 5-6. The GSD is an additional 3, so around 8.

3. 5h5s
Board:6c7h8d

Ouch. I'll give 3 outs for the straight draw. (I'd prefer a 4, obviously.) The 2 5's might help, but we'd need to board to pair as well. I'll give this one 4 outs total.

4. 9h9s
Board:TsJsQh

Pretty similar to the last one. An additional 1 out for the BDFD. I may be discounting way too much, though.

5. JhJs
Board:9dTdQd

OESD is 8 outs, but using only one card we might split. Maybe 6 outs and then the slim chance of hitting a J and the board pairing. 6.5 total.

6. 98s
Board:7s6s7cTc

Trick question? I assume we're ahead here unless someone really tells me otherwise.

7.KsQh
Board:JcTc9sQc

Same here. If we're behind, we're drawing dead.

8. 98s
Board:QcJd6d5d

Nasty. Maybe 1. Or 0.5.

Wow, some of these were tough. Either that, or it's just become painfully clear that I suck.

[AlmightyJay]

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6. Your hand is worth close to 30 outs. HU you have almost all the equity.

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30 outs? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] How do you even get that many outs? You already have a straight, the only way to improve is by hitting a flush (or a straight flush, but that's counted in the flush outs). The flush is 9 outs. Where did the other 21 come from?

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7. This is a strong hand. It is worth about 15-20 outs.

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Are we reading the same post? Hero has the top end of a one-card straight, and no draw whatsoever (unless you count the A's). Where are you getting these outs?

[benkath1]

OK, this will be really good for me.



1.9 spades, 1 for runner runner str8=10

2.11

3.4.5, I would give the 9's a half an out

4.4.5 (see 3)

5.ewww, sticky. a very cautious 6

6.10s=1, 5s=1, other spades=5, depends on the play on this one.

7.3 but not sure on this one.

8.3

OK, lets see how I did. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[og5]

Thanks for the responses.

For 6 I changed it to a straight to see what you guys would say against a draw heavy board (ie is it worth little here, are we still drawing and if so how much do we discount)

I'm surprised that a lot of you guys give full outs to a low flush, I will typically do the same with high broadways but J and lower I give myself 6-8.

3 and 4 are similiar except 4 has the backdoor flush and most importantly high cards. I think the straight is worth less for 4 and more for 3 weighting what our opponents might have, you guys agree?

I have a few more ones I'm puzzled about I'll post later (weaker draws like overcards and 2 pair against strong draws)

Thanks