What did I get myself into.... PP 5/10NL - Page 2

shmahappens · #11 05-02-2005, 03:26 PM

Advocate a call b/c...he unlikely has JJ (by not doing any action PF to try to tell where he is at/if he is dominated), and that is the only hand that should fold to your all-in push.
W/AK (more likely) you can take a flop (which is worthwhile as you still have 1000 behind that is likely going to be riding on this hand) and pretty clearly be able to tell if you're good or not then, instead of getting stuck your entire stack for the likely crapshoot of AK vs QQ with 5 cards to come.
If you take a flop and it's undercards, and he still calls your push with AK he's getting about 1:3.5 (ie a very bad call, especially since by the poster's read the short-stacked all-in has some of his outs with AK/AQ), whereas PF he's getting more than enough odds to make that call.

If he ends up with AA or KK (which'd be strange the way he played this hand) well I'm sorry, that's too bad, but the pot size still makes a push on the flop (to undercards) seem like the right play.

ML4L · #12 05-02-2005, 03:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Advocate a call b/c...he unlikely has JJ (by not doing any action PF to try to tell where he is at/if he is dominated), and that is the only hand that should fold to your all-in push.
W/AK (more likely) you can take a flop (which is worthwhile as you still have 1000 behind that is likely going to be riding on this hand) and pretty clearly be able to tell if you're good or not then, instead of getting stuck your entire stack for the likely crapshoot of AK vs QQ with 5 cards to come.
If you take a flop and it's undercards, and he still calls your push with AK he's getting about 1:3.5 (ie a very bad call, especially since by the poster's read the short-stacked all-in has some of his outs with AK/AQ), whereas PF he's getting more than enough odds to make that call.

If he ends up with AA or KK (which'd be strange the way he played this hand) well I'm sorry, that's too bad, but the pot size still makes a push on the flop (to undercards) seem like the right play.

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I think that you make a stronger case than most of the other posts to this point, but I still believe that we can't peg BB squarely on AK (although that is his most likely holding).

Basically, I think that the benefit of maybe folding out AK + benefit of maybe getting called by JJ/other crap (we don't mind a fold either so he can't catch) + zero chance of folding the best hand postflop is greater than the equity that we gain by being able to get away the times that he does hit an overcard (I think that it's safe to assume that he check-folds AK when he misses).

I hit my quarterly math quota with my threads last week, but some ambitious poster could easily make a formula for us to play with in less than an hour. I'm sure that we could make some assumptions that make a call correct. But, I just don't believe that they would accurately represent reality...

ML4L

IHateCats · #13 05-02-2005, 03:51 PM

Ok, assume you don't spike a Q on the flop and the flop is all undercards. He checks to you. ?

IHateCats · #14 05-02-2005, 04:04 PM

I think you highlight one of the reasons I really have trouble just calling preflop and that's play after the flop. This is a very, very difficult hand to play after the flop if no A, K or Q comes. If no Q comes on the flop, it's undercards and it's checked to me, betting is a necessity but doing so completely commits me, no way am I laying down QQ for another $500+ on a 2500+ pot. I know the math is there for drawing to a set but it also borderline commits me to the pot and I have dangerously little information on the blind player so it would be very, very easy there to make a mistake for my whole stack or an incorrect fold.

aggie · #15 05-02-2005, 04:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
W/AK (more likely) you can take a flop (which is worthwhile as you still have 1000 behind that is likely going to be riding on this hand) and pretty clearly be able to tell if you're good or not then, instead of getting stuck your entire stack for the likely crapshoot of AK vs QQ with 5 cards to come.

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If you knew opponent had AK, i think you'd have a clear pre-flop push because you definitely have some folding equity, and if he calls, it's not a coin flip...

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If he ends up with AA or KK (which'd be strange the way he played this hand) well I'm sorry, that's too bad, but the pot size still makes a push on the flop (to undercards) seem like the right play.

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If you're resigned to giving the rest of your stack away if he has AA or KK i'd definitely prefer to do so pre-flop

aggie · #16 05-02-2005, 04:11 PM

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no way am I laying down QQ for another $500+ on a 2500+ pot.

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If he check-raises this flop, you can be almost certain that he has an overpair or a set and you're drawing to 2 outs. I think it might be okay to fold at this point, but i'm sure it's close.

IHateCats · #17 05-02-2005, 04:21 PM

Are you better than 6-1 sure at that point? Becuase that's what you have to be that he's not putting me on missed AK and cr with the other QQ, JJ or 10-10 for a fold to be correct if you include the 8% of the two remaining Q's coming and the bet is 1/2 the pot.

aggie · #18 05-02-2005, 04:28 PM

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Are you better than 6-1 sure at that point?

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My best guess tells me yes, but i certainly could be wrong. As i said, i'm sure it's very close.

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he's not putting me on missed AK

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If he put you on a missed AK, don't you think he would lead out with the hands you mentioned?

IHateCats · #19 05-02-2005, 04:41 PM

Not necessarily. Since MP player most likely has at least 1 possibly 2 of those cards burned it's less than a 10% chance of those cards coming on the turn vs the opportunity to snap of a 50% pot bluff, seems well worth the risk.

aggie · #20 05-02-2005, 04:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Not necessarily. Since MP player most likely has at least 1 possibly 2 of those cards burned it's less than a 10% chance of those cards coming on the turn vs the opportunity to snap of a 50% pot bluff, seems well worth the risk.

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I think taht once you fire here, your opponent has to figure you're pot commited...Plus it takes a huge set of Cojones to fire this sort of bluff. And if your gonna bluff, it's almost always better to lead than to CR here...

All these factors make 6:1 very close (as i've said)...I think it could go either way here