Can Supertight Play Win?

[Gabe]

Even if you add JJ, AQs, TT, AJs, KQs you only make up half the blind cost. This is for average player with Poker Room rake, but I don't think an expert with no rake would do twice as well.

In most games I would think you would be about break even or maybe have a little of the worst of it. However, In a very loose very aggresive game, this would probably serve to be a pretty good strategy. I think if you added AK and JJ, one could play this way in the more wild games and make out really well.

[skp]

No kidding. It's irritating as hell. There are also about 3 or 4 from last summer that he just totally forgot to follow up on. I don't remember what they were now.

[budman]

No. Despite the fact that the supertight player will win a high percentage of the hands he does play, and with his blinds he might flop a set here and there, he will not be playing enough hands to overcome the $25 investment per orbit he will have to make on the blinds.

Add in to that the fact that he will lose 30% of the hands when he does start with AA, and probably more with the other hands, and I don't think this player can win.

[Piers]

I considered this from two ways.

1) https://www.pokerroom.com/evstats/to...hp?order=value gives the EV of hands played in Poker room. We have the following, all values in Big Bets.

EV(AA) = 2.38
EV(KK) = 1.70
EV(QQ) = 1.24
EV(AKs) = 0.80
EV(AKo) = 0.50

If these are the only hands played we can estimate the average EV per hand as.

EV(Hand) = (EV(AA + KK + QQ) * 6 + EV(AKo) * 12 + EV(AKs ) * 4) /1326
= 41.12/1326 = 0.031

This is the average per hand. The average per ten hands will then be 0.31. As it costs 0.75 per ten hands to stay in the game, an average player clearly cannot win by only playing these 34 hands.

However if we are winning player beating the game by a big bet every 40 hands, playing a more normal 20% before the flop. Then we might add 1/(40*0.20) = 0.125 to each hand played. This gives

EV(Hand) = (41.12 + 34*1.125)/1326 = 0.06

Or 0.6BB per round, this is still loosing 0.15 BB per round. However there will be extra to add from playing free plays in the big blind so its getting quite close to breaking even.

Solving the equation we get the number of big bets per hour you would need to outplay the field by normally before breaking even only playing the 34 hands is

(0.075*1326 –41.12)/(34*1.125) = 1.5.

So this suggest that if you are beating the Poker room games for 1.5 Big bets per 40 hands playing normaly, then you will break even playing only the given 34 hands.

2) I did a TTH simulation. Putting Colin in as our hero and a mixture nine other players so that Colin was winning by about a BB bet per hour. I got the following.

EV(AA) = 3.5
EV(KK) = 2.35
EV(QQ) = 1.625
EV(AKs) = 0.95
EV(AKo) = 0.85

EV(Hand) = 58.65/13226 = 0.044.
Or 0.44 big bets per hour; It looks like Colin does not have a chance against that field.

I wonder if the assumption that the good players bonus can be evenly spread across hands played is false? Maybe your big pocket pairs take less skill on average to play then your KTo type of hand.

[mikelow]

[beetman]

"I wonder if the assumption that the good players bonus can be evenly spread across hands played is false? Maybe your big pocket pairs take less skill on average to play then your KTo type of hand."

Well, the biggest ways an expert can utilize his or her edge involve things like stealing pots, not necessarily saving a bet from time to time or "making a great laydown." With hands like AA or KK, you're usually going to have the best hand or at least odds to draw, so how often will you even have the chance to exercise that sort of opportunity?

In my opinion, the top-notch players exercise their biggest edge in hands where nobody has much of anything, or someone has something they're willing to lay down. These situations don't really apply when you're likely to have the best hand anyway.

this is why new system is bad

[randoGGy]

interesting post. this is the type of approach i would've used to answer this question also.

i wonder if there are actual data (ranges) of EV for particular hands played from the different positions. these data could be separated by player ability and table environment. anyone ever see anything like this?

btw, i notice several posters stating that this kind of question is stupid or pointless. i disagree. i think the process of thinking about this type of question (and this question in particular) can improve a players' game. i dont believe the question was posed as a viable playing strategy, but to illustrate the unviability of extreme 'tight' play.

for example, there may be players who are losing money in loose games, and decide to tighten up their starting hand standards. thinking about this question may save them from tightening up too much.

[Josh W]

In the right game...

About a year ago, Mason posted that in a game where nearly every pot is capped preflop by many players (i.e. a very loose aggressive game), the ONLY profitable hands were AA and KK. So, I think Mason would argue that in certain instances, the answer is a resounding YES.

Josh W.