20k 2/4 Hands, need some advice

[Kyriefurro]

You know, this conversation is almost identical to the one that happened when you posted your 10k stats. The general consensus then was your game was too loose/aggressive and your win rate was more a matter of luck than skill. Yet instead of listening, you chose to argue with everyone who responded and the thread degenerated into an overly long post where you tried to prove that the EVERYONE else was wrong and that your game was actually sound.

Now you post again. Your stat's haven't changed, and I doubt that you're any more prepared to listen to the opinions of the forum than you were last time. If you're not going to listen, why bother asking the forum's advice?

[Emmitt2222]

Why the heck are there the most votes for "a little work left to do"?? I'm telling you right now you can't be that loose at 2/4 and be crushing this game. Some of your stats like blind play look OK, but your aggression numbers seem oddly backwards most likely caused by your looseness. I'm saying right now you are running hot. You like to get in long winded arguments and such so even if you reply to this I won't reply to you. You are too loose and even if your winrate doesnt say so, you are NOT a big winner at this game. So now its just a matter of you being too cocky to move down and evenutally reality smacking you in the face or going back down to 1/2 or .5/1 and working out these problems. Like someone else said, it may be good for you to try out 6max because then you are suppose to be much looser and that may work out best for you. I just hope you listen to constructive criticism instead of argueing with everyone when they try to help.

[timprov]

I don't really feel like I can vote, because I'm really not sure what's going on here. It's possible you're playing well and winning fairly well, it's also possible you're getting ridiculously lucky.

I'd like to know your win% and APH. I'd also like to review a few thousand of your hands, but that's probably not reasonable.

I'd be much more inclined to believe this is legitimate if you're winning 1.5-2 BB/100. If it's 3+, I'd tend toward luckbox.

[einbert]

I've already told you my feelings about your significant numbers, I just want to reiterate something.

20k hands is nowhere near indicative of your true win rate.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be much more inclined to believe this is legitimate if you're winning 1.5-2 BB/100. If it's 3+, I'd tend toward luckbox.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make any sense at all. If he had won 5BB/100 over 200k hands, would you still think luckbox?

And if his VPIP were 80 but he was winning 2BB/100 over 5k hands (very possible), you would think he was just ridiculously skilled postflop and winning at a true 2bb/100?

Come on man, that is not logical.

[stabn]

[ QUOTE ]

I'd be much more inclined to believe this is legitimate if you're winning 1.5-2 BB/100. If it's 3+, I'd tend toward luckbox.


[/ QUOTE ]
You understand that if his VP$IP is 3+ it is more likely that he is (at least a small) winner than if it is currently 1.5-2 right?

Overall, i agree with everyone else though. He needs to bring that VP$IP down to win over the long haul.

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make any sense at all. If he had won 5BB/100 over 200k hands, would you still think luckbox?

And if his VPIP were 80 but he was winning 2BB/100 over 5k hands (very possible), you would think he was just ridiculously skilled postflop and winning at a true 2bb/100?

Come on man, that is not logical.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me rephrase: Given his VPIP, if his W$WSF and W$@SD are "true", I would expect him to be winning 2BB/100 or a little less. If, however, his W$WSF and W$@SD were a result of significant luck, I would expect the winrate to be higher.

[RollingRockMike]

[ QUOTE ]
Hands: 20,011
VPIP: 28.13
VPSB: 50.09
Fold SB to Steal: 76.54
Fold BB to Steal: 48.44
Att. to Steal: 45.46
Won When Saw Flop: 33.25
Went to SD: 31.06
Won at SD: 51.74
PFR: 14.22

Other Stats:

Aggression:
Flop: 1.93
Turn: 2.79
River: 2.26

First Action after PFR:
Raise: 7.13%
Bet: 56.68%
Call: 10.82%
Check: 6.92%
Check/Raise: 1.09%
Fold: 2.95%

So what's going on here? I'm thinking about moving limits. Thanks for the poll answers.


<font color="white"> Disclaimer: This post is entirely for my own enjoyment. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]
You're wasting your time if your goal is to increase your limits. It's obvious that you're not going to improve any furthur at 2/4; I think you've hit a local maxima if not a global optima. Obviously, everyone else is wrong about correct play at 2/4, but there's no reason to further prove this so. Move up.

Mike

[SmileyEH]

You are WAY too loose in the SB, and probably somewhat too loose in other positions. After that I can't tell anything else. A lot of your other stats will be dependant on your preflop mistakes so they can't really be commented on.

-SmileyEH

[chief444]

Chris,

FWIW I think you'd be better off playing tightening up a little preflop. But I find it interesting that a lot of your other numbers are pretty close to mine...specifically your BB numbers and aggression factors on each street. The biggest difference is you play more hands...probably a lot more from LP since your attempt to steal number is high...and you go to showdown less. But that seems logical.

I'm curious what your steal success numbers are. Would you mind posting them?

Chief