#11
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Re: Hand 1 for analysis
you can stack him if you catch
call |
#12
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Re: Hand 1 for analysis
I would go all in here and try to steal the $55 already in the pot. You have 12 near lock outs to a winning hand if you are called. That's about 45% to hit, so assuming he even folds 10% of the time to your all-in then it's probably a +EV play.
EV = (0.1)*55 + (0.9)(0.45)*165 - (0.9)(0.55)*135 = $5.5 Considering he could easily be raising with overcards on this flop I think his chance of folding is higher than 10% too. Then again, this is a high variance play at higher stakes than I play at. Just calling and trying to extract value when you hit out of position would seem difficult. Plus he might just bet too much on the turn for you to call profitably (which seems likely from an aggressive opponent). In that case then you've wasted the $25 call on the flop. Edit: math error in formula. It's closer than I first estimated assuming he only folds 10% of the time. |
#13
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Re: Hand 1 for analysis
First of all I would have pushed. It will force him to lay down a non made hand (unless he is an idiot).
Second of all I think the river would have been a good place for a all in or pot size bet. He showed major weakness by checking behind on the turn. I think the pot size justifies the risk. I don't stone cold bluff too often, but I think this would be a good place for it, especially since he views you as being weak (he probably doesn't think you have it in you to make a big bluff). |
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