Two weird hands vs skilled 2+2'er

[RunDownHouse]

This limit is obviously way over my head, but I'd like to take a crack at the reasoning behind the river play on hand 1. My first thought was not that Nikla was going for overcalls, but that he thought the TAG behind him was going to raise. I just can't see him having anything other than a real powerhouse hand, maybe a set. What would a good, aggressive player have that he would play so passively? I'd think that an overpair would put in a raise on the flop or turn. There aren't a whole lot of drawing hands that he would have raised with except big hearts or maybe A2, and again I'd think we'd see a turn raise from that (the A2).

Maybe since this is nowhere near my level I'm at a total disconnect for how players would play certain hands with those two hearts on the flop. But I think a set is the most reasonable hand for the TAG, followed by an overpair, followed by a wheel. If he knows that SB is just going to bet all the way, he can just wait for the river to pop it worry-free, assuming no hearts, and maybe he's not particularly concerned with hearts (which gives more credence to AhKh?).

I'd really like some feedback on this thought process. Anything more than, "You're out of your element, Donny!" would be appreciated.

[krishanleong]

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I just can't see him having anything other than a real powerhouse hand, maybe a set. What would a good, aggressive player have that he would play so passively?

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I think your way overvaluing his hand. Agressive players don't play monsters pasively. (I don't think) Anyone with a set or better would be nuts not to raise the turn on the button.

Krishan

[ALL1N]

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Why would you ever want to raise turn in hand #1?

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The 2 biggest reasons I think are:
1. Because the board can easily deteriorate and cause you to lose action from a set/2pair.
2. Because the CO donk isn't folding anyway if he's got a 6 or a flush draw or perhaps even more hands.

Combine the 2, and you could have missed the opportunity to have it 3 ways for 4 bets, instead having it 4 ways for 1 bet.

[MAxx]

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I just can't see him having anything other than a real powerhouse hand, maybe a set. What would a good, aggressive player have that he would play so passively?

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what about overcards. what about a hand in particular like KQo or KJo that has overs and a gutshot on the turn? 2'er is not calling those hands on this river for one or 2 bets either way. 2'er is already done with this hand on the river IMO. i think we are more conserned with the payoff donkey.

[RunDownHouse]

Ok, so a set would raise for all the same reasons an overpair would. Point taken. Would two overs not raise anywhere either (the only turn overs that could have a gutshot would be A-whatever)?

I guess a big part of my reasoning was that the only way Nikla smoothcalls here is if he expects to be able to 3bet. But does everyone else pretty much think that the 2+2er is done with the hand and will fold?

[MAxx]

my bad, no turned gutshot for overs.

how about just overs though?

[stoxtrader]

Hand 1 I love it. sometimes you will even get to call/3bet! (rarely of course, but the gain is so great it is worth it because your decision between calling and raising the river is so close anyways).

Hand 2 - you are getting pretty good odds on calling the river 3 bet. would this play 3 bet a lower set?

[rory]

Hand #1:
Well played, every street.

Hand #2:
I understand the reasoning behind the river fold, but I think I call anyway. 2+2er probabily would have raised from the SB with a little pair to try to get it heads up, if he was going to play at all, so he probably doesn't have a set, though if the button is a really loose defender I usually just call with those little pairs. And then, what else does the 2+2er have? A hand like A9s might be possible, though unlikely. A hand like 78s might be one he would play this way, but you don't beat that anyway. It is hard to come up with a hand he could have on the river that you beat. T9s doesn't 3 bet that river. I think there is enough of a chance that the 2+2er has a set of 5s or 6s that a call is right getting about 13:1. How terrible is that-- I have a hard time putting the guy on a hand you can beat and I still want you to call cause, like, you have top set.

[imitation]

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Why would you ever want to raise turn in hand #1?

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The 2 biggest reasons I think are:
1. Because the board can easily deteriorate and cause you to lose action from a set/2pair.
2. Because the CO donk isn't folding anyway if he's got a 6 or a flush draw or perhaps even more hands.

Combine the 2, and you could have missed the opportunity to have it 3 ways for 4 bets, instead having it 4 ways for 1 bet.

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We have a winner, buy this man a drink. Follow the Australians advice in this thread and though shalt not falter.

[Schneids]

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Two weird hands vs skilled 2+2'er

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You sure about the title?

I'd raise the river in hand one. I'd call the 3 bet in hand two. But mb "skilled" 2p2er plays you differently than me.