tens against a microlimit eagle.

[SteveL91]

[ QUOTE ]
right, i lose to KK, AA, AK, all of which will cap my ass on that flop. I beat AQ, who will fold to my agg. the 3bet is because I think i have a good chance of getting JJ, QQ to fold to my 3 bet. i would have played those pocket pairs exactly the same way he did.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not folding QQ, and it's doubtful he'd fold JJ just because you 3-bet him on the flop. Unless he's seen you get tricky in the past, your lack of a pf cap tells him he most likely has you dominated.

[hicherbie]

as far as millers post, i wasnt 3 betting for information. if he had capped i would have tossed my hand to any more bets...if he had a better hand and called...i would have bet out on the turn and lost one more BB if he raised me.

i 3-bet figuring i was beat, but giving him the option to fold.


ill try to work out calcuations now.

[Buckmulligan]

I only bet this flop if I have the intention of folding to his raise. If you would like a showdown, I would check/call this down. To bet and get raised here is a spew.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
as far as millers post, i wasnt 3 betting for information. if he had capped i would have tossed my hand to any more bets...if he had a better hand and called...i would have bet out on the turn and lost one more BB if he raised me.

i 3-bet figuring i was beat, but giving him the option to fold.


ill try to work out calcuations now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding to a cap would have been an error.

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
as far as millers post, i wasnt 3 betting for information. if he had capped i would have tossed my hand to any more bets...if he had a better hand and called...i would have bet out on the turn and lost one more BB if he raised me.

i 3-bet figuring i was beat, but giving him the option to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the 3-bet much more if you're in position and it can buy you a cheap river card. Here, I just can't believe you have enough FE to make it the right play. However, since you did, you can't fold to a cap. Implied odds come into play at that point in case you hit a set on the turn.

[BatsShadow]

He meant calling on the cap and folding "to any more bets" unimproved I think.

I think it's interesting that his response says he is not 3-betting for info, but goes on to explain the info he receives from 3-betting.

[hicherbie]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding to a cap would have been an error.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? if i am beat at this point im not getting odds to hit my set...

alrighty, lets give this a try...

so after he raises me on the flop its 10.5SB to me
if he folds 20% of the time i win 5.25BB risking 1BB
the other 80% i get capped or called (which forces me to give up my hand) and i lose 1BB.

100x
i lose 80BB when i get reraised and get 105BB if he folds.

20% does seem high...i guess this play would be best if i was sure he knew i was a TAG. added to the fact that calling would make me spew another BB at him, this play is probably unprofitable...at least without knowing the eagle a bit better.

[hicherbie]

and no, i meant i would fold to a cap on the flop.

and yes, if he folds, the information i would get is that i win the hand.

[mmbt0ne]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
right, i lose to KK, AA, AK, all of which will cap my ass on that flop. I beat AQ, who will fold to my agg. the 3bet is because I think i have a good chance of getting JJ, QQ to fold to my 3 bet. i would have played those pocket pairs exactly the same way he did.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you tell me what percentage of the time he would have to fold JJ/QQ to make this profitable? Everyone should try this, these calculations are fun and very helpful.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so no one did the math. I'm pretty disappointed, because poker is nothing if not math.

I did this using AK(12), AA(6), KK(3), QQ(6), and JJ(6) as the hands he would raise on the flop. Here's the numbers I came up with, feel free to tell me they're wrong:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
% Raise JJ/QQ Weighted JJ/QQ % he must fold
5 0.6 685.71
10 1.2 352.38
15 1.8 241.27
20 2.4 185.71
25 3.0 152.38
30 3.6 130.16
35 4.2 114.29
40 4.8 102.38
45 5.4 93.12
50 6.0 85.71
55 6.6 79.65
60 7.2 74.60
65 7.8 70.33
70 8.4 66.67
75 9.0 63.49
80 9.6 60.71
85 10.2 58.26
90 10.8 56.08
95 11.4 54.14
100 12.0 52.38
</pre><hr />

So, you can see that if he raises JJ/QQ 40% or less of the time on this flop, you will never make money by 3-betting (because villian can't fold more than 100% of the time), and no matter how often he raises those hands on the flop, he will have to fold a majority of the time for you to make money without factoring in any later streets.

[hicherbie]

woudlnt AQ added change those numbers a bit?