A 10/20 observation.

[DrGutshot]

Hey arkady, for the most part I agree with your post. Yes, betting out of position, especially when into 2 or more opponents, is a huge sign of strength when facing an unknown opponent.

However, I would be careful with folding ace highs when heads up on the river. The problem, though, with just saying that is that this is so dependent on the board and whether or not there was a draw that missed.

An additional factor is history with the opponent. If you just joined a table recently, and have folded the river after a raise preflop, bet flop, checked turn, once or twice, definitely call the next time provided the board has not blatantly paired your opponent.

I have picked off bagillions (yes, bagillions), of bluffs after the exact betting sequence described above. I know you had a rough stretch this past week, and that may have influenced your thinking here.

I think a better rule is that if you are last to act of a 3 handed river, and the first bets out, then to lay down ace high there.

-DrG

[MoreWineII]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey arkady, for the most part I agree with your post. Yes, betting out of position, especially when into 2 or more opponents, is a huge sign of strength when facing an unknown opponent.

However, I would be careful with folding ace highs when heads up on the river. The problem, though, with just saying that is that this is so dependent on the board and whether or not there was a draw that missed.

An additional factor is history with the opponent. If you just joined a table recently, and have folded the river after a raise preflop, bet flop, checked turn, once or twice, definitely call the next time provided the board has not blatantly paired your opponent.

I have picked off bagillions (yes, bagillions), of bluffs after the exact betting sequence described above. I know you had a rough stretch this past week, and that may have influenced your thinking here.

I think a better rule is that if you are last to act of a 3 handed river, and the first bets out, then to lay down ace high there.

-DrG

[/ QUOTE ]

Snaps! I think the drawishness of the board and player reads are such important factors in this decision that there can't even really be a default play.

[arkady]

Arkady says: Your reply is too biased. You are privied to my bad stretch and therefore can not possibly reason clearly.

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Hey, I picked up a bagillion of bluffs too, but generally it does not happen when I show a lot of aggression. It happens in some other strange form and I can't explain it. Also, there is no such as a default play in poker. If there was this game would be too easy. That is to all the people who are desperately seeking a solution for every scenario. There is no such thing.

[mperich]

I estimate this at closer to 80%. Vs a solid player it may be 95+, but vs an unknown 80 at most.

-Mike

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
I estimate this at closer to 80%. Vs a solid player it may be 95+, but vs an unknown 80 at most.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I wanted to say. I almost always bet river when I hit my draw becaus many players will check behind and I dont often bluff a solid player, but many, many players at 10/20 do this bet as a last try to win the pot with their busted draw (or busted "nothing at all"). If board is totally undrawish or the guy betting is really unaggressive I can think about folding my A-high.

Im really running bad lately but trusting this read isnt the way to win again. Strong folds when u are running bad is almost always bad because running bad means u are the target the others are aiming for (good essay about it in Malmuths poker essays II, p 20-22).

[climber]

Thanks Arkady,

You saved me a couple BB today. Just reading your post made me think through a couple hands as they happened today and stop and realize hmmm, OOP, riverAF=0, yet he bets...maybe I should fold my UI A6o.

Honestly this is one of my biggest leaks since I moved to 10/20 6Max. There is so much more bluffing and
marginal river value betting going on that I have been struggling to stop calling down so much.

Don't worry guys, Arkady won't have me folding too much anytime soon though. My determined efforts to call down less today still left me with a 43% WtSD%.

[arkady]

My fold to river bet is around 38%, so I don't buckle under immediate pressure. In terms of a last resort to win the pot, I saw that at 5/10. In 10/20 they are more likely to go for a river raise or c/r, rather than just to bet out.

I am thinking this can also be an effective tool against people who might fold to this type of bet. None of you guys, but someone will [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]