JTs this time

[MAxx]

I agree that sometimes a turn bet is good when pushing a flush draw b/c of fold equity.

Here, on average, based on PF action I don't think you have enough fold equity. You have setup a free turn card beautifully, and I think you should strongly consider taking it.

Note: A turn lead is far from horrible. Your Pot Equity is pretty close to justify it.

I just think that your fold equity is not great here, and you are usually going to have to improve to win (based primarily on PF/Flop action).

[Jeffage]

All that happened on the flop is there was a bet, call and a raise w/ both players calling. A big pair would likely play it fast on the flop (pocket 10's and higher); someone who flopped a set of 9's or something may play it fast too (or checkraise the turn). The 4 bets pre can mean anything (AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, suited or unsuited or just bluster). I don't think anything has happened yet to indicate your necessarily against an overpair (though it's possible). I think with your huge draw and the pot size, a bet on the turn is definitely warranted and can set up a continued bluff on the end. If you check the turn, you MUST hit your hand to win....if you bet it, maybe not.

Jeff

[MAxx]

I hear what you are saying. What I am saying, is I basically believe in this particular scenario... the overwhelming majority of the time, your are going to have to hit something on this river whether you lead the turn or not.

If the parties demonstrated less interest, or it was headsups... I like a turn lead more than a turn check.

[SomethingClever]

Even if it's correct to fold preflop when it's two back to you here, I refuse to do it. I don't want the blinds to think I'm capable of folds like that.

Now, if I raise KJo UTG and it gets capped back to me, I might consider a fold... but this I call.

[MoreWineII]

Thanks for all the replies. Interesting turn discussion. Betting went through my mind, but it was one of those times where a check-raise would have made me vomit. After reading the responses though, I think you can at least make a convincing case for betting the turn.

Anyway, they both called and MWHG. BB said he had JJ and berated SB for betting the river. I chuckled.

[Jeffage]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting went through my mind, but it was one of those times where a check-raise would have made me vomit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting checkraised here when you have tons of outs would make you vomit? I would feel fine about it. If you hit you will likely make at least two if not more large bets and you have tons of cards that will help you. If you're againt 4 or so opponents (even 3 maybe) I can see checking the turn. But I'm not looking to save bets on the turn in this spot.

Jeff

[MoreWineII]

I'm not a big fan of putting a bunch of big bets into the pot on the turn with a draw. With the board paired, suddenly my "outs" become less squeaky clean after being check-raised. I'm not discounting them, but still...

Had I been check-raised on the turn, I think it's safe to say that my jack and ten outs are no good. I'm basically down to crubs of non-seven and my gutshot outs.

Maybe vomit was too strong a response, but I'm definitely feeling a little less comfortable after being check-raised on the turn.