Dodgers are +105 today (4/20)????

[mrbaseball]

a 5 cent edge is well within anyones handicapping margin of error and variance. I often see what I perceive to be much larger edges on a daily basis so I don't have to mess around with the real close ones.

[DougOzzzz]

Is it? If you bet on +105 on a coinflip, your EV is +$2.50. I thought most people needed 5%, not 2.5%... but I could be wrong.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I often see what I perceive to be much larger edges on a daily basis so I don't have to mess around with the real close ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well that's kinda the point. Anyone who uses an independant method to evaluate games, then compares them with the lines will see lots of small edges. Probably at least half of all games will have some sort of perceived edge. I haven't heard of any long term winners who bet on half of all of the games though.

[mrbaseball]

What I'm saying is a 5 cent edge is NO edge. Nobody's that good and the 5 cent edge gets gobbled up in margin for error and variance. I need about 5% before I get interested and usually even more. But that means about +125 on a coinflip rather than +105.

[DougOzzzz]

Oh. Yeah, I agree with that... I just misread your last post.