20/40 hand, Too loose of 5th?

[RandomUser]

Fourth is an easy call because there was a completion on 3rd street. If there were no completion then it is a fold.

On 4th, hero has to call $20 into a $86 pot and is drawing to 16 cards (5, 9 or heart) to improve.

Without the completion, it would be calling $20 into a $41 pot which is a huge difference in odds.

[LittleLTluc]

Thanks. Understand now... I would have incorrectly let it go on fourth!

[Bartholow]

If you called a raise on 3rd, or raised yourself for that matter, it is very often worth continuing on 4th with a 3 flush (exceptions are if your cards fall dead, if it is more than a single bet to you, etc.) So in this case, though you started with a somewhat weaker hand, you now have a 3-flush, and fairly live 3 straight. And it's a multiway pot.

[RandomUser]

Thought I'd try to do the math for the 5th street call. Someone correct me if I'm not doing it right.

Assume you have to catch runner-runner straight/flush to win (ignore the A outs tho they may affect it slightly)

You have to catch a 5, 9 or heart on 6th to continue.

64.3% (26/42) of time you catch a blank and fold

Net loss 40

35.7% of time you catch a 5/9/heart and continue.

a) Catch a heart

27.7% of time (35.7%*77.5%(31/40)) of time you catch a blank on river and fold.

Net loss 80

8.03% (35.7%*22.5%(9/40)) of time you catch a heart and raise.

Net gain $246 ($86 pot on 4th plus 4 bets from opponent)

So EV for the flush is:

-25.72 + -22.16 + 20.42 = -27.46

EV for straight is even lower.

It is interesting to note that this play becomes almost profitable if there are enough people in the hand since your net losses remain the same while your net gains when you hit go up dramatically.

If there are 4 people in the hand instead of 2, the 4th str pot is now $126 and your net gain from winning the pot would be 446-606 depending on how many people call your river raise.

Instead of ganing 4 bets from one opponent you'd gain 3 bets on 5th 3 bets on 6th and 2-6 on the river.

If all 3 opponents call your raise on the river (doubtful), then the EV is:

-25.72 + -22.16 + 48.66 = .78

This is an extremely unlikely scenario, though, and shows just how unprofitable chasing runner-runner can be.

[BeerMoney]

I continued on for a few reasons.

1.) I felt like it.
2.) I thought the live ace helped me out.
3.) I didn't want to fold to my opponent.
4.) I didn't think my opponent had anything, even though I didn't have much, I thought A high might be good.

I wasn't simply looking for the runner runner possibilities.


Also, I want to say another thing..

I have a bajillion posts on this site. However, a bunch of them are useless posts in that disaster of a forum known as "other other topics." So, I am by no means a strategy expert. The fact that I decided to sit at a 20/40 table does not mean I am a good player or a 20/40 player. So, feel free to unleash on me when I post a fishy hand like this. We all need to be told where fishy sometimes.

[LittleLTluc]

LMAO [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Andy B]

Yeah, fifth is a fold, unless you think you can get the other guy to lay down to a bet or a check-raise, which doesn't seem all that likely to me.