River Choices With MidPair

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
Your line if UTG+1 folds?

[/ QUOTE ]
Call. I'd expect a LAG to take a stab at the pot with a hand he doesn't have when I check.

[ QUOTE ]
Your line if UTG calls?

[/ QUOTE ]
I can understand the 'I don't want to overcall' bit, but that's giving UTG+1 a bit more respect than he might deserve at this point. He might have a 7 or so. So, since we don't have a read I would probably wince and call it, even in UTG+1 called.

Of course if he raises, I drop it.

[ QUOTE ]
How often do you think B doesn't have an A if you do call?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's an average lag playing about 40-50% of the hands, and A-high hands make up about 14% of possible hands I'd say what, 1/3rd of the time he'll have an ace? Do those numbers make any sense?

Of course some of the time he doesn't have an ace he'll have 2 spades.

KO

[PokerProdigy]

You've came this far so I think you have to call with the two nines if UTG+1 folds because you only have to be good 1/8.5th of the time (which I think you are). If UTG+1 calls or raises then you can safely fold. Also I like the check because it induces a bluff.

[McGahee]

Check/Call is fine here assuming you're not overcalling. I think an average player will bluff an Ace here often enough, much less an aggressive player.

[SlantNGo]

Let's look at the board and idenfity what UTG+1 could be calling with on the river. A 6, 7, or T, or possibly a missed draw that now has some value like 93 or A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Without a caller, you have to win 1 in 8.5 times, i.e. 11.8% of the time.

With a caller, you have to win 1 in 9.5 times, i.e. 10.5% of the time.

Now if my math is correct, you have to beat the caller 10.5/11.8 = 89% of the time (of the times you beat the original bettor) to break even. Sure, a caller may have a 6, 7, 3, or K-high, but I don't think we can beat a caller 89% of the time. In fact, I think that's closer to 60% or 70%, which is why I'll call but not overcall.

However, give me JJ, and the only thing I'm worried about from a caller is an Ace, in which case, I think we're around that 89%, so I would definitely consider an overcall.

[ QUOTE ]
I can understand the 'I don't want to overcall' bit, but that's giving UTG+1 a bit more respect than he might deserve at this point. He might have a 7 or so. So, since we don't have a read I would probably wince and call it, even in UTG+1 called.

[/ QUOTE ]

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
Without a caller, you have to win 1 in 8.5 times, i.e. 11.8% of the time.

With a caller, you have to win 1 in 9.5 times, i.e. 10.5% of the time.

Now if my math is correct, you have to beat the caller 10.5/11.8 = 89% of the time (of the times you beat the original bettor) to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I would agree we're not better than the caller 89% of the time, but I don't really see how this math is relevant.

How does the ratio of the percentage chance to beat them translate into 'you have to win this ratio times'?

I'm working this out in the meantime, trying to figure out why this is applicable, but I wanted to post the question.

KO

[KingOtter]

Okay, I think I figured it out.

Let's call them Player A and Player B.

If I'm just playing against Player A, I have to win 11.6% of the time in order to make the call worth it, or 11.6% = playerA

If I'm playing player A & player B I have to win a total of 10.5% of the time in order to make the call worth it, or 10.5% = playerA * playerB.

So if we're beating Player A 11.6% of the time, then we have
10.5% = 11.6 * playerB, or 10.5%/11.6% = playerB = 89%.

Interesting. I agree we're not beating playerB 89% of the time.

KO

[SlantNGo]

You got it. So I don't overcall with 99, but with a T and a good kicker or with something like JJ I would definitely consider it.

[toss]

Thanks for the replies guys. For whatever reason UTG+1 called and I overcalled. BB shows AKo and UTG+1 shows 37o. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]