Bet into on the turn with flopped set

[JohnnyLaw]

Excellent point.

[radioheadfan]

I like calling the turn because:

1) Makes hero look weak
2) Your hand is now very diguised
3) B/c of point #2, villian will bet his likely AK strongly on river, allowing you to push and double up
4) This is a way ahead / way behind situation and you don't have to worry much about villian sucking out on you
5) Leaves you the option of making a nasty laydown on the river if he pushes and you put him on a better set
6) Keep villian in the lead on the off chance that he's bluffing or betting a weakish hand

Raising the turn is bad because he will call with better hands (occasionally calling with AK) and fold worse hands like, QQ, AQ, AJ, etc.

You will get paid from AK anyways on the river so this is an easy call with your position.

Everyone so far who has said raise is way off here. (Most of them didn't make arguments for their suggestion, they just said to raise - not very helpful posts).

[The.Filth]

I copied and pasted this from my xanga. Basically, I believe he has a weak ace and to make the most money out of it, i would call turn and bet about 60-80 on the river.

when you raise it preflop and bet pot on the flop and he check calls you... then leads out the turn.. what does this mean? i haven't put much thought into it yet but as for now i would think that he has a pair of aces but a kicker that hes not too proud of... because in a shorthanded game people raise preflop and continue with a bet on the flop almost all the time.. if you didn't have an ace.. it would be hard to call him and he would win the pot without risking much here.. and it would be hard to raise him because hes basically telling you he has a hand..

but now you have a strong hand.. how do you extract the most money from him.. if you raise him.. he would probably much because since he told you he had a hand.. but u still raised him.. u probably have a better hand.. and since he was testing waters with that bet.. basically it was like.. if u raise big i fold..

so this puts you in a tough situation here.. surely if you call the bet on the turn you would put on his breaks since he knows you have a hand also.. which is probably better than his single ace with a medicore kicker since u raised preflop... so you could call turn and make a bet of about 55 at the river... this would be a very difficult fold for him since the bet is basically begging to be called... since its so small.. i'm not sure how else you could extract more money out from him..

a big raise on the turn would surely shut him out.. but a min raise could be good.. depending on how strong the player.. if he is weak he would probably call it with a weak ace.. and call another small bet on the river..

your play depends tremendously on how strong the player is..

all that talk was based on the fact that he holds a weak ace.. another possibility is that he hit a set or two pair and is trying to extract the most money out of you.. hoping you would raise the turn with AQ or maybe to build to pot up.. with smallish bets.. so in that case since its unlikely that he has AA or KK due to the action preflop (but still pretty possible), you should pop out a good raise..

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
2) Your hand is now very diguised
3) B/c of point #2, villian will bet his likely AK strongly on river, allowing you to push and double up

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[ QUOTE ]

5) Leaves you the option of making a nasty laydown on the river if he pushes and you put him on a better set

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I don't think you can use both of these arguments in tandem... couldn't a push be "betting his AK strongly" as you mentioned above?

I don't see him leading the river all-in here... but are you suggesting that if he bets anything but all-in, you push, and if he pushes, you fold?

As TrailOfTears said.. there are so many hands that could be out here besides a higher set. Check-call and lead out is a common line for a bluff -- for all we know, villain has TT and thinks the hero is just betting his position on the flop with any two cards.

I'm going to the felt here. I like the flat call on the turn, for the reasons described in many of the posts above -- simply because the betting doesn't necessarily suggest to me that he has a big hand and will pay off a raise on the turn.

-dB