Makes me sick.....

[SlantNGo]

Well played.

[grjr]

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Nice hand. I like the check, you don't want to show down with more than one opponent or for more than one bet.

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I don't know. I got suckered out of 2 16BB pots just like this within an hour of each other a couple weeks ago. Now Ed Miller's voice keeps whispering in my ear.

[kiddj]

First: I would have probably done the same thing on the river, especially after LP's raise.

Then I did some math. The only assumption I made was that when the button folded on the river, that meant he didn't have a spade, (actually this doesn't affect the calculations much). This leaves 43 unaccounted for cards of which there are 9 spades left. There are 2 opponents left, so the probability of one of them having at least one spade is about 61%. Leaving you with a 39% chance of winning (not counting the straight poss). You were faced with calling 2BB with 12.5BB in the pot. You only needed about a 16% chance of winning to call the bet. This could be a prime candidate for a crying call. A bet would be -EV.

[Catt]

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First: I would have probably done the same thing on the river, especially after LP's raise.

Then I did some math. The only assumption I made was that when the button folded on the river, that meant he didn't have a spade, (actually this doesn't affect the calculations much). This leaves 43 unaccounted for cards of which there are 9 spades left. There are 2 opponents left, so the probability of one of them having at least one spade is about 61%. Leaving you with a 39% chance of winning (not counting the straight poss). You were faced with calling 2BB with 12.5BB in the pot. You only needed about a 16% chance of winning to call the bet. This could be a prime candidate for a crying call. A bet would be -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't just look at the math in isolation. I would venture that when the fourth spade falls on the river, and it is bet and raised in front of you, the chances of one of the two giving action hold a spade is a heckuva lot higher than 61%. Reads on players and analyzing the betting patterns in the hand at issue needs to work in concert with the raw probabilities. This should not be considered a prime candidate for a crying call.

[GuruCane]

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[ QUOTE ]
First: I would have probably done the same thing on the river, especially after LP's raise.

Then I did some math. The only assumption I made was that when the button folded on the river, that meant he didn't have a spade, (actually this doesn't affect the calculations much). This leaves 43 unaccounted for cards of which there are 9 spades left. There are 2 opponents left, so the probability of one of them having at least one spade is about 61%. Leaving you with a 39% chance of winning (not counting the straight poss). You were faced with calling 2BB with 12.5BB in the pot. You only needed about a 16% chance of winning to call the bet. This could be a prime candidate for a crying call. A bet would be -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't just look at the math in isolation. I would venture that when the fourth spade falls on the river, and it is bet and raised in front of you, the chances of one of the two giving action hold a spade is a heckuva lot higher than 61%. Reads on players and analyzing the betting patterns in the hand at issue needs to work in concert with the raw probabilities. This should not be considered a prime candidate for a crying call.

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I think the latter point has a lot of merit. I know the word "feel" dare not be uttered in some of the halls on this sight, but this is a call based on the "feel" of this game. I say this b/c the OP is absolutely correct--this SMELLS like one or both have a spade. Whether I call depends upon my read of the situation and the players. On its face, I dump it and destroy a household item upon the revealing of the cards.

[kiddj]

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You can't just look at the math in isolation. I would venture that when the fourth spade falls on the river, and it is bet and raised in front of you, the chances of one of the two giving action hold a spade is a heckuva lot higher than 61%. Reads on players and analyzing the betting patterns in the hand at issue needs to work in concert with the raw probabilities. This should not be considered a prime candidate for a crying call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, not a prime candidate, but maybe just a candidate. The read given was loose fish, so you could make the assumption that they have any 2 cards. I just wanted to point out that mathematically you can't assume they have a flush. However, as I stated in the beginning of my post: I probably would have made the same fold given LP's raise.

[k000k]

First off, I'm not questioning the check/fold at all, in fact, it's not even close IMO. I was just sharing the pain of folding a set of aces.. If I left off the results, I bet I'd get unanimous 'FOLD' responses. Anyway, some comments on your comments:

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Ah, but you do gain something...the pot. Betting the river here, when you have the best hand, gives you a chance to win the whole pot, not just the calls.

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THIS time, yes. You probably have to bet 30-50 of these to win once. Betting the river is a lose/no-gain scenario just about every time.. You're gonna lose a lot of $$ fighting for those 10-13 bb's. This just happened to be the time I woulda hit that slim slim chance.

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There are 2 opponents left, so the probability of one of them having at least one spade is about 61%. Leaving you with a 39% chance of winning (not counting the straight poss).

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Sure, mathematically, 39%.. But these aren't random hands on the turn/river, they're hands that are calling a PF raiser down with an ace on the flop. Nothing says 'ace' like an UTG PF raise, yet they tag along while I bet every street.. Yes, there's math involved in poker, but there's more than that.. If you didn't have that last ace or a spade, what would make you stay in this hand?

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I don't know. I got suckered out of 2 16BB pots just like this within an hour of each other a couple weeks ago. Now Ed Miller's voice keeps whispering in my ear.

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Ok, you got suckered out of a couple pots, that means you had a read I didn't have. But I'd have a hard time calling that even against chronic bluffers. Plus, 16 bb is getting pretty big. For 1 bb you'd be right to call 16:1 with a pretty slim holding. If it was HU and one bet back to me, I'd call it. 3way, IDK, probably ya, fully expecting to lose. This is 2 bets to me for 13.5 other bets in a best case scenario, 6.75:1, and if it gets raised even more, I could end up paying 4 bets for 17 other bets, 4.25:1. I doubt Ed would call this one with those odds,